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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 26th, 2023–Jan 27th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kakwa, Tumbler.

There is a lot of uncertainty with the reactivity of deeply buried weak layers. Conditions like this are best managed by sticking to lower-angle terrain away from any overhead hazard.

Read more in our latest forecaster blog.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in the past few days in the region, however observations are limited.

Looking forward, wind slabs will continue to form but concern for step-down and large natural and human-triggered deep persistent slab avalanches is at the forefront of our minds. Check out this video on incremental loading to learn more.

If you are out in the backcountry please consider filling out a Mountain Information Network report.

Snowpack Summary

Strong west and northwest winds will continue to affect wind-exposed terrain and build fresh wind slabs in lee areas. On steep solar aspects, and sun crust may exist on the snow surface and at lower elevations, a rain crust exists.

Snowpack depths are shallower than normal, and several buried weak layers have been a concern over the past few weeks. Surface hoar or crust layers in the mid-snowpack may exist in this region.

The most concerning layer in this area is at the base of the snowpack. Large, weak facets buried in November are widespread. This layer is most likely to be problematic in steep, rocky alpine terrain, where shallower wind slab avalanches can scrub down to these basal facets.

Weather Summary

Upslope conditions Thursday night into Friday may produce larger snowfall accumulations on the eastern slopes of the Rockies. Isolated hot spots (Kakwa and south towards Renshaw and Jasper) could accumulate upwards of 20 cm by 4 pm Friday.

Thursday night

Cloudy with isolated flurries, 5-10 cm. Ridge wind northwest 20-40 km/hr. Alpine low temperature -8 C. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

Friday

Scattered flurries continue through the day, 5-10 cm. Ridge wind north 10-20 km/hr. Alpine temperature -8 C. Freezing level valley bottom.

Saturday

Clearing with sunny breaks. Ridge wind northeast 15-25 km/hr. Alpine temperature -15 C.

Sunday

Mainly sunny. Ridge wind northeast 5-15 km/hr. Alpine temperature -20 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.