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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 9th, 2023–Feb 10th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Flathead, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

New snow falling earlier this week combined with wind will continue to promote wind slab formation.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday there was a report of a size 2 natural windslab avalanche on a west aspect at 1800m east of Elkford. It is outlined in this MIN report here.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

There is 10-20cm of new snow from early this week, which is being redistributed into lee terrain in wind exposed areas at upper elevations. This overlies previous wind slabs, or a melt-freeze crust below 1900 m.

Deeply buried weak layers formed early season are slowly gaining strength but are still a concern, especially in steep rocky terrain features where the snowpack is thin.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Clear periods. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -6 °C.

Friday

Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, accumulation 3-5cm. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -4 ºC. Freezing level rising to 1300m.

Saturday

Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -5 ºC. Freezing level rising to 1200m.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy. moderate west and southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -3 °C. Freezing level around 1500m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.