Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2026–Mar 17th, 2026

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Due to the incoming storm and possibly 90cm by Friday, Highway 93 from Athabasca falls to Saskatchewan crossing is scheduled to be closed Tuesday at noon. Models do not agree on amounts and timing but it looks like an atmospheric river is coming with high potential for a lot of rain at lower elevations.

Confidence

Low

We are uncertain due to the timing, track, and intensity of the incoming weather system.

Avalanche Summary

Monday's Icefield afternoon road patrol was stormy, windy, and poor visibility thus no new naturals observed. Sunday's patrol near Mount Morden Long, near Sunwapta station, observed nothing notable with excellent visibility yet whumphing occurred up to 1800m. Avalanche control at Parker Ridge on March 12th produced a few surface wind slabs up to size 2.

Snowpack Summary

At the time of writing, it is snowing adding 6cm to what was previously either scoured terrain or leeward wind slabs. It will continue snowing until Friday possibly bringing 90cm. A persistent weak layer of surface hoar and facets is buried 20-80 cm but overall the snowpack is generally well consolidated with facets near the ground. Average snow depths for Icefields is 130-200 cm and Maligne is 60-140 cm.

Weather Summary

Monday night will bring 13 cm of snow, -6 °C, and 55 km/h Southwest winds. Tuesday it will snow 14cm. Wednesday could have another 20cm plus 75km/hr winds, then 27cm on Thursday, and 12cm on Friday. Freezing levels will reach 2300m or higher meaning some of this will be rain.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Watch for rapidly changing conditions during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
Avalanche danger will rapidly increase if snow switches to rain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.