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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 27th, 2024–Feb 28th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Expect danger to rise rapidly throughout the day.

Avoid avalanche terrain as natural avalanche activity is expected.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanches occured in northern areas following the recent 50 cm snowfall and strong winds.

Widespread natural avalanche activity is expected to begin again on Wednesday as storm and wind build fresh and reactive slabs.

Snowpack Summary

By Wednesday afternoon, this storm is expected to deliver 90 cm in the west, with totals closer to 40 cm elsewhere. Storm snow will overlie a widespread crust in most areas, except northern areas where storm snow will fall on heavily wind-affected snow.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally well consolidated, with several crust layers. Most areas below treeline are still below threshold for avalanches.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy with up to 20 cm of snow. 40-60 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Freezing levels rise overnight to 1000 m.

Wednesday

Heavy snowfall, 30 to 70 cm of new snow. Highest accumulations are expected in the southwest. 80-100 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1200 m.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud. 5-15 cm of snow. 20-40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 800 m.

Friday

A mix of sun and cloud. 5-20 cm of snow. 20-40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.