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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 25th, 2020–Nov 26th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Welcome to the winter 2020/2021 forecast season! Watch for reactive storm slabs at upper elevations, and be aware of the potential for larger avalanches due to a crust that was buried in early November.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT- Cloudy with clear periods and isolated flurries / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine low temperature near -10

THURSDAY- Increasing cloud, snow beginning in the afternoon, up to 25 cm overnight / southwest wind, 20-45 km/h / alpine high temperature near -5 / Freezing level 1200 m 

FRIDAY- Snow, 15-20 cm / southwest wind, 30-50 km/h / alpine high temperature near -5 / Freezing level 1200 m

SATURDAY- A mix of sun and cloud / west wind, 15-20 km/h / alpine high temperature near -7 

Avalanche Summary

There have been no recent reports of avalanches in the region, however observations are very limted at this time of year. If you get out into the mountains, please consider sharing your observations on the Mountain Information Network!

Snowpack Summary

10-25 cm of fresh snow has fallen in the Cariboos since Tuesday morning, bringing total recent storm snow amounts to 30-50 cm. There is a crust from early November down approximately 50-90 cm. This crust has been observed with sugary facets above and below it. There are limited observations on this layer, but some test results indicate that it has the potential to be reactive to human triggering. Total snowpack depths are an average of 90-180 cm at upper elevations, tapering quickly at lower elevations. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
  • If it's deep enough to ride, it's deep enough to slide (avalanche).

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.