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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 24th, 2022–Feb 25th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Small wind slabs may still be reactive in exposed high elevation terrain in the far north of the region. Everywhere else, the widespread melt-freeze crust near the surface keeps avalanche unlikely.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

A strong ridge of high pressure keeps BC dry until a major weather pattern change takes place beginning this weekend. 

THURSDAY NIGHT: A few clouds, no precipitation, 10-15 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline low temperature -5 C, freezing level at 350 m.

FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation, 10-20 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline high temperature 0 C, freezing level at 1100 m.

SATURDAY: Periods of snow, 5-10 cm, 90-100 km/h southerly wind, treeline high temperature +2 C, freezing level at 1200 m.

SUNDAY: Snow, 10-15 cm, 50-70 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline high temperature +3 C, freezing level at 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, the Avalanche Canada field team reported thin wind slabs which were reactive to human-triggering in the far north of the region. These may be still reactive with the cold temperatures.

For the rest of the region which saw substantially less recent snowfall, a widespread surface crust is making avalanches unlikely. 

Snowpack Summary

Through most of the region, a thick and supportive melt-freeze crust on all aspects and elevations sits on the surface or just below a few centimeters of recent snow. The exception is the far north of the region around Mt. Cain where pockets of thin wind slabs were reported to have formed above the crust in exposed high elevation terrain.

The prominent late-January crust is now down 20-60 cm and is well bonded to the surrounding snow. The mid and lower snowpack is considered well settled and strong. 

Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks exposed at or just below the snow surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.