Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2022–Mar 15th, 2022

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

A natural avalanche cycle is underway.

Rising temps, combined with steady snowfall and increasing winds, are elevating the avalanche hazard.

Weather Forecast

Steady flurries, rising temps, gusty strong winds from the SW

Tonight: Cloudy with flurries, 5cm, Alp high -5*C, light/mod SW wind

Tues: Snow, 15cm, Alp high -4*C, FZL 1500m, mod/gusting strong SW winds

Wed: Cloudy with flurries, 5cm, Alp high -7*C, FZL 1300m, light SW winds

Thurs: Cloudy, isolated flurries, Alp high -5*C, FZL 1400m, light SW winds

Snowpack Summary

The storm snow is adding up, with ~45cm on the March 11 crust (up to 1500m on all aspects, up to treeline on solar aspects). The March 7 (surface hoar/crust) is down ~55cm, the Feb 26 (surface hoar/crust) is down ~75cm, and the Feb 15 surface hoar is down 90-130cm and decomposing. Mild temps are promoting low elevation storm slab development.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity is picking up Monday afternoon, with numerous avalanches to sz 3 detected on Macdonald, Tupper, Cheops, Frequent Flyer, etc.

A field team on Cougar Creek East was able to easily ski cut the top 35-40cm soft slabs on wind-affected rolls. Loose, moist avalanches to sz 1 were easy to initiate on rolls below 1600m.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.