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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2022–Mar 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Reactive storm slabs exist at higher elevations. At lower elevations, loose wet and wet slab avalanches are likely.

The danger rating reflects the forecast for the Southern part of the region. Elsewhere, avalanche danger may be a step lower.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

Change is in the air with an unstable airmass bringing convective, spring-like weather. Generally, overcast skies and a drying trend will exist Thursday. The ridge should be set up by Friday with clearing skies and light northwest winds.   

Wednesday Night: 5-10 cm of new snow. Freezing levels dropping to 1000 m overnight and moderate southwesterly wind at ridgetop. 

Thursday: Cloudy skies in the South with possible periods of sunshine in the North. Convective flurries up to 10 cm with light northwest wind. Freezing levels 1000 to 1500 m. 

Friday: Sunny skies with spring-like (diurnal) freezing levels dropping to 1000 m overnight and rising to 1500 m during the day. Ridgetop wind moderate from the northwest. 

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, numerous storm slab and loose wet avalanches up to size 2 were reported. Treeline and below treeline terrain saw wet loose avalanches up to size 2 as well. 

On Tuesday afternoon, reports from the southern part of the region saw a widespread natural wet loose and wet slab cycle up to size 3. A few glide slab releases also occurred up to size 1.5. These avalanches may have actually occurred on Monday. In the northern part of the region, snowballing was seen from below treeline elevations. No new reports from the southern half of the region. 

Snowpack Summary

Anywhere from 40 cm to 60 cm of recent storm snow has accumulated in the North (Pemberton area) and up t 80 cm in the South (Coquihalla) over a variety of surfaces that were buried mid-February. These old interfaces include surface hoar and/or facets in shady, wind-sheltered areas, sun crust on solar aspects, and hard wind slab in the alpine. Generally, the storm snow seems to be settling quickly, however, deeper deposits have formed thicker slabs on leeward slopes treeline and above. The snow is becoming moist/wet and rain-soaked at lower elevations. 

Another crust/facet layer from late-January is buried down 40-120 cm and has shown no results in recent snowpack tests and is dormant at this time.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.