Confidence
Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Weather Forecast
On Wednesday expect increased cloud throughout the region. Weather models are disagreeing on snowfall amounts for Thursday/Friday. Some are claiming 5-10cm for each day, while others are looking a lot drier. Stay tuned for more info. Winds are expected to be light to moderate from the northwest trending to light and variable by Friday. Freezing levels are expected to be at about 1100m on Wednesday trending to about 1400m for Thursday/Friday.
Avalanche Summary
A few newly developed windslabs to size 1.5 were observed in the alpine on Monday.
Snowpack Summary
January was a snowy month in the South Columbia region and average snowpack depths at 1700m are now between 2 and 3m. The upper snowpack is now well settled and riders have gained increased confidence on steeper terrain. The one exception may be new wind slabs that formed with moderate alpine winds on Monday/Tuesday. Deeper weaknesses in the snowpack seem to less of a concern; however, in the southern end of the region there is still talk of basal facets as some operators are avoiding thin and rocky alpine features. Over the weekend there was s spike in alpine temperatures that sparked a significant avalanche cycle. With the more recent cooling pattern there has been a crust recovery on previously sun-exposed slopes, and there has been a general significant strengthening of the snowpack. If you're heading into the mountains, it's a good time to take stock of evolving layers (crusts, surface hoar) that may be an issue when it finally snows again.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.