Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 4th, 2023–Mar 5th, 2023

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

630 am update: The danger rating applies to areas in the eastern ranges that received significant snowfall overnight. Elsewhere, avalanche danger may be a step lower but storm slabs could still remain sensitive to rider triggers, especially in wind loaded terrain features. Take a conservative approach, ease into terrain cautiously and watch for signs of instability.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

With poor visibility through the storm(s), avalanche observations have been limited to loose dry up to size 2 observed at various elevations by our field team on Thursday.

A slew of MINs from the Mt Cain area last weekend reported several rider triggered storm/wind slab avalanches up to size 2. We suspect they were running on a recently buried crust.

If you head into the backcountry please consider sharing your observations on the Mountain Information Network!

Snowpack Summary

20-50 cm of recent snow has likely seen some redistribution into lee terrain features by moderate wind at upper elevations, while remaining soft in sheltered areas.

A thick, widespread crust formed in mid February now sits 50-90 cm deep. Near Mt Cain, the crust is glassy with faceted crystals sitting on top of it, which makes for a poor bond to the overlying slab of snow. For more details, check out this reel from our field team! Elsewhere the crust seems to be bonding well. You can check the bond in your local area by performing a simple hand shear test on an isolated block.

The mid and lower snowpack is well consolidated, containing a series of well-bonded crusts.

Weather Summary

A persistent low whirls in place offshore of Washington, wrapping around to impact the eastern ranges of Vancouver Island over the next few days. Expecting heaviest snowfall Saturday night in Strathcona Park with accumulating flurries continuing into the week. Freezing levels will hover around 800 m.

Saturday night

5-10 cm in most areas, 20-30 cm in the Strathcona area. Strong southeast wind. Alpine high -4 ºC.

Sunday

5-10 cm in most areas. Southeast wind easing to light. Alpine high -2 ºC.

Monday

Around 5 cm in most places, up to 20 cm in the northwest overnight then clearing to a mix of sun and cloud. Light southeast wind. Alpine high -2 ºC.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud. Light southeast wind. Alpine high -2 ºC.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Give the new snow time to settle and stabilize before pushing into bigger terrain.
Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.