Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Mar 28 – 29, 2023Avalanche Canada
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Archived · expired 4 years ago

Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Solar warming should primarily factor into your trip planning - avoid exposure to southerly slopes and cornices.

Elevated hazard rating at tree line reflects increasing freezing level and solar influence during peak warming- take advantage of the good overnight freeze by starting and finishing early.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wet loose avalanches will likely initiate from steep rocky terrain on southerly aspects, and may be large enough to trigger deeper problems.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1.5–3.5

    The bottom of the snowpack is inherently weak with well-developed Facets and Depth Hoar. Large triggers like cornices, and wet avalanches can step down to this deep persistent slab, present on all aspects, TL and above.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Cornice failures and loose wet avalanches may increase in the late afternoons (~14:00) with clear skies, direct sun, and rising daytime freezing levels.

Don't forget to post avalanche observations to the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

2-10cm of new snow through the region over a thin sun crust at all elevations on solar aspects. 20-50cm down is a persistent slab, within a variable strength mid-pack which bridges the basal facets and depth hoar at the base. The strength of the mid-pack is varied by aspect and elevation. Snow depth varies from 60-170cm.

Weather Summary

Forecasts call for high freezing levels (up to 2000m) and increasing clouds beginning in the late morning, Wednesday. This should be the warmest day of the week. A mix of sun and cloud on Thursday with a continued diurnal temperature pattern.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Regions covered