Uncertainty surrounding a dynamic freezing level will likely keep alpine danger ratings elevated through the week.
Confidence
Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain
Weather Forecast
Tuesday looks dry and warm with a freezing level around 1800m. Winds are expected to be light at all elevations. Wednesday also looks dry, but winds are expected to kick up a bit, look for Strong SW winds at ridgetop and light variable winds at treeline. The freezing level should climb to around 2200m by Wednesday afternoon. Strong SW winds at ridgetop should continue into Thursday as the freezing level continues to climb. The freezing level could be as high as 3000m by Thursday evening.
Avalanche Summary
Control work on Sunday produced storm slabs to size 2.5 with crown depths of 50 to 150cm. This is a slight reduction in size from Saturday's control work that produced storm slab avalanches to size 3 running 50 to 150cm in depth on the early February crust.
Snowpack Summary
The wet warm storm produced 30 to 100cm of snow above 2200m. Warm temperatures are driving rapid settlement of the storm snow, the average depth of snow above the stout and supportive Early February Rain Crust is now around 70cm. Shears on both the mid storm instabilities and the February Crust continue to strengthen. It's not your typical early February snowpack, the snow below 2000m is wet, and a saturated slush on crust setup can be found below treeline. All avalanche activity has occurred on either mid storm instabilities or the crust. We have not received any reports of avalanches failing below the crust.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.