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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2015–Jan 15th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

A new layer of surface hoar is growing up to 8mm that will likely be a problem when the next storm arrives.  Continue to watch for this weak areas where you may trigger the basal weaknesses.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Warm temperatures continue and winds are forecast to increase as we move into the weekend.  We aren't expecting any new snow over the next 24hrs but there will be a pulse on Friday that may give us 5 cm or so. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations.

Snowpack Summary

Very little change out there at this time.  Open alpine terrain is wind affects even areas down into treeline are showing evidence of wind affected snow surface.  The dec 13th crust is being found up to 2200m down 30-50cm and is continuing to produce moderate sheers on a layer of FC both above and below this layer.  Deeper in the snowpack the Nov 6th crust persist but is showing signs of breaking down.  A new layer of surface hoar is widespread in all areas below treeline and sheltered areas in the Alpine that will likely be a problem when the next storm, or a storm, arrives.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.