Surface conditions remain the primary concern. An icy rime surface exists above 1600 metres elevation, mostly on south-facing slopes. A loose wet avalanche problem may develop on sun-affected aspects. The weather remains settled over the next 24 hours. Clear conditions at times with light to moderate westerly winds over the next 24 hours, but showers are also possible. The freezing level is lowering, with a refreeze possible.
Loose wet avalanche activity cannot be ruled out. High-angle sun-affected slopes during the warmest period of the day will be the locations of concern. Intermittent light rain showers may also weaken the surface structure. Lowering freezing levels and moderate cooling winds may counteract the structural breakdown of the surface snow. Be alert to signs such as increased foot and ski penetration, roller ball activity.
No human or naturally triggered avalanches have been reported or observed over the past 24 hours.
The main characteristic of the current snowpack is the presence of impenetrable rime formations. These surface deposits are dangerous and unforgiving, particularly on the south and west-facing slopes. The rime formations are resistant to saturation by rain and even to solar effects, and they may take considerable time to break down. Recent rain has lifted the snowline and eroded the snowpack, with the current snowline at approximately 1600 metres. The estimated threshold where snow cover buries the bed surface irregularities is slightly higher at around 1700 meters. Above 1700 metres, avalanches will run freely. Recent rain has lifted the snow line and eroded the snowpack.
Tomorrow, the 19th of July, will have cloudy periods with a few showers, clearing late afternoon. The winds are moderate to light westerly or southwest, easing Sunday afternoon. The freezing level is 2500 metres elevation, but is expected to lower to 2300 metres over the next 24 hours. A west to southwest flow covers Aotearoa/New Zealand today, and a weak front moves slowly onto the far south of the country. The front moves northwards tomorrow, stalling over central New Zealand by the end of the weekend.
Rime crust on southern slopes can be slick, hard, and dangerous. These conditions require a high level of skill and competence. The consequences of a fall and slide can be severe, as there are many hazards, such as exposed rocks and cliff bands. It is essential to carry the appropriate gear, including crampons and an ice axe. Mount Taranaki is highly exposed to weather patterns coming from multiple directions, which significantly affects the snowpack and surface conditions in a unique and volatile manner. Rime and rain events are frequent, and the rime ice can be robust and impenetrable; even experienced climbers may struggle with these conditions.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
