Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A series of storms is expected to continue to move across the interior mountain ranges from the coast. There should be periods of moderate snowfall during the day on Thursday as the next big pulse of moisture and strong Southwest winds pushes East of the continental divide. Eastern parts of the region may dry out and cool down quickly as arctic air descends from the North. If your area gets heavy snowfall on Thursday you should consider it to be more like the Lizard and Flathead region. By Saturday it should be mostly cold with some lingering cloud and light snow.

No avalanche activity has been reported. This may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. In the neighboring Lizard/Flathead region, natural and human-triggered avalanches to size 2 have failed on basal facets. I suspect a similar pattern of avalanche activity may be developing in some of the deeper snowpack areas within this region. With forecast weather, I expect continued storm slab activity with the potential to trigger deeper, more destructive weaknesses at the base of the snowpack.

As we begin our forecasting season we are working with very limited field data. If you have been out in the mountains, please send us a note with your observations to [email protected] limited field data that we have received suggests that there is not enough snow below treeline for avalanche activity. At higher elevations, the developing storm slab may be sitting on a weak layer of facetted snow, surface hoar, and/or a wind or sun crust that developed earlier in the month. This storm slab has been touchy to human triggers and has been reactive on basal facets in the Lizard/Flathead Region. I would expect similar conditions in some of the deeper snowpack areas within the South Rockies region.I expect avalanche activity to increase in size and frequency with forecast wind, snow and warming.