Grand Mesa

Colorado is on the cusp of receiving our first potent storm of the season.  Snowfall begins Friday night and continues through Sunday.  This storm will favor the Northern and Central Mountains with one to two feet of total accumulation. The Southern Mountains will see less than a foot of total snowfall.

The deepest accumulations will occur where there is already the most snow on the ground:  The Sawatch Range, Elk and West Elk Mountains.  Avalanche danger will increase in these areas, especially above around 11,000 feet.  The most dangerous slopes face northerly and east and are steeper than around 30 degrees.

In the wake of this storm, we will have over a foot of settled snow on the ground in many locations. This is enough snow to drift and obscure the ground cover. This means we need to start taking the threat of avalanches seriously. Once snow piles up or drifts deep enough to obscure the ground cover avalanches are possible. This doesn't take much on grassy slopes or steep rock slabs. 

It's very early season. The only slopes with enough coverage to slide on will also be the most dangerous. Look for and avoid steep slopes with stiffer wind-drifted snow. Even a ride in a small avalanche can end your season early, or worse, as you're likely to get dragged through rocks and other shallowly-buried obstacles.

Nearly every fall, avalanches catch eager riders and late-season hikers off-guard. Hunters traveling through the high country should exercise caution on steep, snow-covered terrain. Please consider the threat of avalanches if you visit steep slopes in the high country. Below we describe some considerations for early-season fall avalanche concerns.

We will resume daily forecasts on November 1, 2023.

We will update the Field Report and Avalanche Observations as information comes in, so please send us your observations.

Weather

You can get current weather forecasts from the National Weather Service. Our computer Model Forecasts update four times a day and will run through the fall. If you are going into the Colorado high country, use our Weather Stations page to check current conditions.

Avalanche and Snowpack Discussion

Most avalanches happen during or right after a snowstorm. However, any time new snow falls and the wind moves it through the terrain, avalanches are possible. New snow often has a hard time adhering to hard, icy old snow surfaces, so a fall snowstorm can produce small avalanches if it falls onto old snow, grassy areas or rock slabs. The best way to manage these avalanches in the fall is to have a current weather forecast, recognize when there is enough snow to produce avalanches, and select terrain that minimizes your exposure to the risk.

Storms Slab avalanches are the release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) composed of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. They often form when new snow falls with light winds or in wind-sheltered areas. They typically last for a few days. You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps like gullies or cliffs, or slopes that end in timber or scree fields.

With Wind Slab avalanches, wind-drifted snow forms the cohesive layer (a slab). Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Drifted snow is often smooth and rounded, and sometimes sounds hollow. They form in specific areas leeward of terrain features. You can reduce your risk from Wind Slab avalanches by sticking to wind-sheltered or wind-scoured areas and avoiding drifted spots.

Loose Dry avalanches are a release of dry, unconsolidated snow. They start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Loose Dry avalanches are usually relatively harmless to people. They can be dangerous if they catch and carry you into or over terrain traps like gullies or cliffs, or slopes that end in timber or scree fields.