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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 10th, 2017–Mar 11th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Winds are whipping up 45cm of low density snow into slabs. Assess each slope carefully.

Weather Forecast

Saturday into Sunday a.m. will be clouds, 5-10cm of snow, 25km/hr South to Southwest sinds, and -4 to -6 degrees Celsius. Winds speed increases slightly Sunday and Monday out of the W-SW with clouds and flurries. Temperatures will remain the same.

Snowpack Summary

SE Winds are creating windslabs 30-60cm thick. It rests on a persistent slab that has a cornucopia of wind and facet layers throughout the midpack. The lower snowpack is weak with depth hoar and a November rain crust. S aspect at Parker's there is a Surface hoar layer on a sun crust down 30cm testing unstable sudden planar fracture characteristic.

Avalanche Summary

Friday's field patrol into Portal creek from Marmot basin had no whumphing or shooting cracks. Thursday a cornice triggered a size 2.5 on Parkers Slabs. Churchill slide path on Thursday observed no whumphing or shooting cracks but the team stayed very conservative near the trees. Skiers on March 7 in Bald hills triggered a size 2 from a km away.

Confidence

Wind effect is extremely variable

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.