Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A wintry pattern continues with more snow and wind that will create hazard on all aspects and elevations, but hazard will increase as you gain elevation. Particularly in areas closer to the Cascade Crest, the chance of triggering a slab avalanche large enough to kill you exists in both sheltered and exposed terrain. The most clear signs of instability include recent slab avalanches, long shooting cracks from your equipment, and collapsing.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As is typical for the Cascades, more snow has fallen and will fall closer to the Cascade Crest, so hazard is higher in these areas. Less typically, the snow is low density. As it continues to stack up, it will be easily blown around by moderate to strong wind. 

    Anticipate unstable slabs of wind drifted snow first thing in the morning, and continued development throughout the day. You should always look for signs of wind drifted snow on all aspects, but keep this especially in mind, as the wind direction has been shifty. Slabs will be deeper on north and east aspects. Look for obvious clues of loading, such as blowing snow, sharp drifts, textured snow surfaces, and a change to denser feeling snow underneath you. Wind slabs typically form just below ridgelines or along gully walls (cross loading). Thursday marks a good day to steer around steep, exposed slopes.

    (1/7/2026) A large, human triggered wind slab avalanche in the Steven's Pass zone on Wednesday. Luckily, this person successfully deployed their airbag and stayed on top of the debris.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As the snow continues to stack up, consider the chance that it is settling into an unstable, cohesive slab in sheltered terrain too. Storm slab instability should be relegated to areas near the Cascade Crest that receive higher snow totals. Use an inconsequential but steep test slope or quick hand pits to assess stability. Steer around big steep slopes if you experience the same red flags you'd see in a wind slab problem: cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanches.

    Where storm snow is not settling, keep an eye out for sluffs of loose dry snow in very steep terrain. Even a small avalanche could knock you off your feet and carry you into exposed hazards or terrain traps.

    (1/6/2026)

    A small test slope like this is an excellent place to test for storm slab instability, as this observer did.

    Photo: Adam Butterfield

Avalanche Discussion

The last piece of on the ground snowpack information we have for the East South zone is from December 28th. A lot of weather has happened since then. As of Wednesday afternoon, the Bumping Ridge weather station was reporting 1.6 inches of precipitation (generally 0.1 inches of precipitation is equivalent to 1 inch of snow) since Tuesday morning. However, with how low density new snow has been, snow depths are likely much deeper.

Uncertainty in this forecast due to lack of information, coupled with very active storm systems impacting the region, should drive you to back off aggressive terrain on Thursday. Storm snow avalanche hazard is almost always at its highest during or immediately after a storm, so it's best to give the snowpack a day or two to rest anyway.

Based on observations from other zones, there is probably a crust in the upper snowpack that formed on 01/02. It is now buried by new and recent snow from the last few days. It is refrozen and supportable above 5000 ft, and less so below. Minimal signs of instability associated with it have been observed. Below this, a thick slab sits over the hefty atmospheric river crusts now buried deeply. There is a significant difference in overall snowpack depths between lower and upper elevations, as well as areas close to the Cascade Crest versus further east.

Open creeks, downed logs, and other hazards have continued to be an obstacle at lower elevations. They may be obscured by new snow, so take your time as you move around the backcountry. In choosing terrain to ride, consider the consequence of a slide- if one happens, where will it take you? Look for slopes with a clean run-out free of bone-breaking trees, creeks, and rocks. 

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