Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains Considerable at all elevations today. Below 3000 feet it will be likely for a person to trigger an avalanche 1-2’ in depth. Above 3000 ft, new snow is adding stress to weak layers buried deep in our snowpack. Cautious route finding and a conservative approach will be necessary as we assess how our weak snowpack is accepting the new snow.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    12-20” of snow has fallen since Monday across our forecast areas with a few more inches forecasted for this afternoon going into this evening. In the middle and lower elevations, this new snow has fallen on top of Surface Hoar (weak snow) that formed during the clear dry weather from last week. In areas below 3000 ft do not expect the new snow to bond within 24-48 hrs as you might usually expect after a storm. In the Maritime zone this layer has already shown to be quite sensitive to human triggers as the slab is dense and consolidated. In the Intermountain zone the slab is not yet sensitive as the slab lacks cohesion, but as the new snow consolidates expect the likelihood of triggering this layer to increase.

    The elevation band of most concern is where this layer of Buried Surface hoar overlaps with the December Facets in the 2500-3500 ft range. Triggering an avalanche on the layer of Buried Surface Hoar could step down to weak snow at the ground (Deep Persistent Problem) creating a much larger, dangerous avalanche.

    Above 3000 ft higher snow totals exist making a deeper slab, but the underlying old snow is not buried surface hoar making for a more traditional “storm slab” that should be bonding to the old snow surface in a more usual fashion.

    Digging hand pits and jumping on small test slopes are ways to assess the sensitivity of the new snow in the areas you travel. Avoiding steep slopes and roll overs below 3000 ft is recommended for now. Patience and a conservative mindset will be needed as this problem often takes a while to heal.

    Natural slab avalanche failing on buried surface hoar, on a small terrain feature.  

    Benzene Alley 1/27

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak snow exists at the bottom of the snowpack at all elevations, and new snow is adding additional stress to these weak layers. The mid elevations have shown to have the weakest snow across all our forecast areas. The distribution of weak snow at upper elevations is more variable. Areas that are typically accumulation zones with a deeper snowpack such as glaciers and concave bowls have shown to be gaining strength, while steep, rocky, exposed areas with a thinner snowpack are much weaker. 

    These layers are buried well over 1 meter (3 ft) deep and will not show signs of instability. The best way to avoid this problem for now is to stay off steep, rocky terrain where the snowpack is thin enough that a rider may be able to bend the slab and initiate an avalanche. Use safe travel procedures like spacing out, traveling one at a time in avalanche terrain, and spotting your partner. If you or one of your partners were to trigger a deep slab avalanche it will likely be bigger than you would expect. Make sure your safe zones are truly safe from a very large avalanche.

    This problem is worse in the continental zone where the snow is weaker and the slab is thinner.

    (1/23/2026)

    Large connected natural hard slab avalanche associated with our deep persistent weak layer. Mt Dimond north face

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours: Natural avalanche observed in Benzene Alley at 1300'/ North N-R3-D1.5

A few mid storm R1-D1.5 natural avalanches on the mid elevation buttresses were observed between Python and Gully 1.

Forecast Discussion

A typical storm slab (new snow) will usually bond to the old snow surface within 24-48 hours and become less reactive over this time. The opposite is the case when this new snow falls on surface hoar. If the new snow is light and unconsolidated it may not show many signs of instabilities right off the bat, but as the slab consolidates, it will become more reactive. This can trick users into thinking the new snow has bonded to the underlying snow and then get surprised when the instability gets worse with time. Stay on your toes with this problem and don’t get complacent. Buried Surface Hoar is a common weak layer associated with avalanche accidents and our current setup in which the buried surface hoar is sitting on top of a rain crust is rare for Valdez.

 For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections. 

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