Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Incremental amounts of new snow and winds from the west-southwest will work together to build shallow drifts at upper elevations below ridgelines and in the tops of gully features. The added weight from a wintry mix of dense snow and rain to slabs that are overlying buried weak layers that are 1 to 3 feet deep in the snowpack may increase the sensitivity of those layers and make it easier for a skier or rider to trigger a large and consequential avalanche. Seeing shooting cracks Infront of your skis or board or hearing an audible collapse are red flags and should direct you to lower angle terrain that is protected from steep overhead hazards.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Persistent weak layers continue to drive lingering snowpack instability and are now buried roughly one to three feet below the surface. These weak layers consist of faceted grains associated with multiple rain crusts that formed during our first atmospheric river event in mid-December. Although recent days have produced fewer obvious signs of instability, this crust-facet structure remains widespread and capable of producing avalanches.

    Last night’s new snowfall added additional weight to an already complex snowpack. This new load increases stress on the buried persistent weak layers, particularly where the overlying slab has become thicker and more cohesive. Even though these layers have been relatively quiet, incremental loading from new snow may be enough to push isolated areas closer to their breaking point.

    Sensitivity is greatest where the snowpack is thinner and less insulated from recent cold temperatures. Shallow areas around rocky outcroppings, wind-scoured slopes, and mid-elevation terrain that received less snow and more rain remain the most likely places to encounter reactive conditions. The only reliable way to assess the structure and reactivity of the snowpack beneath you is to dig and investigate.

    Triggering these layers is more likely with larger loads, such as a snowmachine trenching deeply into the slab. Human-triggered avalanches remain possible, especially where a rider finds a thin or weak spot in the slab, or where warming temperatures have softened the upper snowpack enough to allow deeper penetration into the weak layers below.

    These persistent weak layers fall into a lower-likelihood, higher-consequence scenario. Expect little to no warning signs before an avalanche occurs. Mindful terrain selection and evaluation remains essential. Take extra caution around steep, complex terrain and carefully manage exposure to reduce the risk of an unexpected and potentially serious avalanche.

    Annotated snowpit on a Northwest aspect at 6000 feet highlighting the multiple crusts that have weak faceted snow above and below in the upper snowpack due to several rain on snow events in December, followed by a colder period at the end of the month.

    January 1, 2026.

    Photo: Jackson George

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Upper elevation terrain mostly remained above the rising rain line last night and picked up new snow yesterday and overnight. Snow amounts are temperature and elevation dependent, with colder conditions and better snow accumulation more likely the farther north and the higher in elevation you travel within the forecast area. The new snow represents a new load on the snowpack and is already beginning to form a more cohesive surface layer in exposed terrain.Winds from the west and southwest are redistributing this new snow into shallow but potentially more reactive drifts. While wind speeds have remained relatively modest, they have been sufficient to build fresh wind slabs in typical deposition zones, including just below ridgelines and near the tops of gullies and rollovers.Signs of instability such as cracking within the new snow and a stiff, textured surface indicate that these wind slabs are actively forming. If you observe these red flags, consider changing aspects or dialing back to lower-angle terrain to avoid triggering a small but potentially hazardous wind slab avalanche.

    Light to moderate winds have been gently etching the snow surface at upper elevations, which has been been gradually stiffening a slab that overlies buried weak layers.

    December 30, 2025. 

    Photo: Jackson George

Avalanche Discussion

Mixed precipitation will fall across the Panhandle and western Montana today, but the overall feel will be warm and moist. The further north you move, the better shot you have at staying just under freezing. Terrain that kisses the Canadian border will have the best chance of light snow accumulations today, likely landing near the 1 to 3 inch mark. The southern end of the forecast area will stay above freezing today, and precipitation will fall as the less favored variety- rain.

Whether it’s dense snow or rain, the additional input of weight to the upper snowpack and slabs resting atop weak snow layers may increase sensitivity, creating a scenario for these buried weak layers to become more reactive to the weight of a skier or rider. The most concerning piece of this problem is that it is presenting with almost no surface clues. You will likely not get any feedback or classic warning signs that these layers may collapse until it’s too late and they do. With this poor structure existing widespread across the region at mid and upper elevations, the only way to know for sure is to dig down in the snowpack and carefully investigate, or just choose to recreate on slopes that are under 30 degrees altogether.

The Silver Valley-Bitterroots have seen temperatures remain above freezing for over 24 hours now, and will continue today. If temperatures rise higher than anticipated in other zones, a Wet Loose problem may start to take shape. Thankfully, this problem is much more straightforward and presents with surface clues. Watching rollerballs gain in size, sinking into wet, mushy snow, and observing point releases where snow fans out as it entrains more with it all point to a Wet Loose problem manifesting. This particular avalanche problem will likely be small, but the consequences increase if you are taken for a ride in shallow, rocky terrain or if the slow-moving debris terminates in a terrain trap. Keep a pulse on changing conditions and be ready to adjust as needed.

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