East Slopes South

Happy New Year! We get to start 2026 with generally safe avalanche conditions. Still, the weather forecast is a bit fickle so monitor for weakening wet snow or an isolated pocket of wind drifted snow at upper elevations.

The start of the new year will be a transition from warm, sunny high pressure to stormy low pressure. You'll probably ring in 2026 under mostly clear, starry skies. Then, clouds will start to move into the region and thicken as Thursday progresses. There is uncertainty about the timing of incoming precipitation, but it appears it won't infiltrate the zone until the evening. It should be a negligible amount, falling as either sleet or snow. But because there is uncertainty, it behooves you to pay attention to the weather as you recreate on Thursday. If you notice snow is falling earlier than forecasted and being blown around, take a good look for wind affected snow before diving into a steep, exposed slope. If you notice it falling as borderline rain and wetting the snowpack, consider steering around steep slopes where wet snow could release.

A NWAC forecaster traveled in the Nelson Ridge area near Bumping Lake last Saturday and found shallow coverage at lower elevations, but a more meaningful snowpack as they moved into more open slopes at middle elevations. They noted warming on sunny slopes, so after a few more days of high pressure, these areas likely have a surface crust now. At middle elevations, they found roughly three feet of snow with a favorable snowpack structure. There is a thin crust buried approximately 9 inches down that formed on Christmas Eve (12/24), a thicker crust buried deeper that formed on 12/18 and likely extends up into upper elevation terrain in some areas, and basal atmospheric-river crusts at the bottom of the snowpack.

They also noticed extensive wind affect, but did not find unstable wind slabs. They did not make it to upper elevations, so if you go poking around on higher, more complex slopes, it could be possible to find a lingering isolated wind slab. If you plan to recreate in this kind of terrain, take a good look for wind affected snow before diving in. You can check out the full observation here. 

Other than this one aging data point and telemetry data, we have no other snowpack information for the zone. Subtle changes in aspect, elevation, or canopy cover can significantly affect overall depth and riding conditions. Snowpack depths likely range widely across the East South. Expect a lean snowpack of roughly 20-30 inches in the eastern mountains and more robust 50-60 inches closer to the Cascade Crest. Where the snowpack is thin, downed trees, open creeks, and grabby bushes make getting to deeper snowpacks a challenge. Plan extra time into your day to navigate these obstacles.

You can help us out! Submit an observation on the avyapp or here.