Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

3-6" of snowfall today along with SW winds will create wind slabs up to one foot thick above 7000'. New snow will not bond well to solar aspects that have formed a melt-freeze crust. Dry loose avalanches are possible on shaded, north-facing terrain across all elevations.

Today's avalanche forecast is sponsored by Rossignol

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    3-6" of snowfall today along with 15-30 MPH SW winds will create sensitive wind slabs this afternoon. You can expect to find 6-12" of wind-deposited snow on leeward slopes above 7000'. Wind slabs will be deepest and most reactive on N, NE, and E aspects around and just below ridgelines. New snow is falling on a variety of existing snow surfaces. New snow will not bond well to surfaces that have undergone a melt-freeze process near the surface (think solar aspects).

    Local terrain features can significantly alter prevailing wind patterns. Be on the lookout for fresh wind slab development across multiple aspects today, even as you travel down from ridgetops. Gullies, rollovers, and other micro-terrain features can become wind-loaded farther down the slope. Watch for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks. Pay attention to clues like drifts, pillows, and fresh cornices. If you feel dense snow overlying weaker, softer snow, you've found a wind slab. Watch slope angles today as they approach 30 degrees and manage terrain to help navigate today's wind slab problem.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Dry loose avalanches will become confined to shaded terrain on the north side of the compass. The upper 4-8" of recent snow is light and soft. Beneath that, the snow has become denser and more consolidated. Expect this upper snow to be able to move with you in terrain steeper than 30 degrees. Although dry loose avalanches (sluffs) may not be large enough to bury a person, they could certainly knock you off your feet or bump you and your machine of course.

    Pay attention to terrain traps. Gullies or depressions are places where loose snow can funnel and pile up. Terrain traps also include exposed areas like cliffs, rocks, and steep terrain that funnels into trees. If you plan to enter steep, consequential terrain, ask yourself, "If I get knocked off my feet or machine, where will I end up?" Managing terrain choices is the best way to manage and avoid certain terrain traps.

    (2/16/2024) View of avalanches from Brundage looking at S aspect of Sargents Photo: Michael Fitzgerald

Avalanche Discussion

Same Danger, Slightly Different Problems

The mountains received 12-24" of new snow from last Thursday's storm cycle. The southern end of our forecast zone was favored as snow totals and winds were highest there. Yetserday, small dry and wet loose avalanches were the primary concern. A storm system impacting the region will bring 3-6" of snow to the mountains with gusty SW winds. Dry loose snow (sluff) should still be on your mind, especially on slopes that are on the northern half of the compass. As new snowfall and winds increase throughout the day, wind slabs will become sensitive above 7000'. Changing weather means changing avalanche problems. Pay attention to how the changing weather throughout the day is impacting the snow and avalanche conditions.

Every observation submission gets entered into the FPAC monthly raffle. If you submit an observation, you could win some great prizes courtesy of the FPAC. We've only had two submissions from motorized users this season. (The odds are stacked in your favor to win a prize for the motorized raffle). Tell us what you're seeing when you're out riding in the mountains. Observations (such as these recent ones) can greatly improve information for avalanche forecasts.