Abajos

Although increasingly unlikely, human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain possible on steep slopes that face W-N-E-SE. The danger is most prominent on steep, northerly aspects. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche in thin snowpack areas. You can reduce your risk by avoiding steep, rocky areas and slopes with complex terrain features. Strong southwesterly winds may begin to blow and drift snow into fresh slabs on leeward, northerly aspects today. Expect the problem to become more widespread by tomorrow when new snow overnight has accumulated.

Weather

A windy storm is on the horizon that should bring a few inches of snow to the mountains through Tuesday. Increasing winds from the SW will blow in the 30-40 mph range along ridgetops. Dry and sunny conditions return Wednesday and last through the remainder of the week.

General Conditons

It's been more than two weeks since the last snowfall and conditions are variable. Dry powder snow can still be found in sheltered, shady locations. Wind and sun crusts can be found on exposed slopes. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche on a deeply buried PWL continues to decrease, but it is still possible. We are now in a low likelihood, high consequence scenario. If you are stepping out into avalanche terrain, evaluate each slope on an individual basis. Aim to ride in areas with a deep snowpack. Avoid steep, rocky terrain, thinner areas along slope margins, and steep, blind rollovers or convexities. These are all likely trigger points.

A storm tonight into tomorrow will bring a few inches of snow accompanied by strong winds from the SW. This will result in a slight bump in avalanche danger tomorrow as shallow fresh slabs of wind drifted snow form on leeeward, northerly aspects. Fresh slabs of wind drifted are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. Slabs form on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls, sub-ridges, or rock outcroppings. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deopsits of wind drifted snow.

NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.

Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.