Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wet loose avalanches remain possible today. This avalanche problem will increase throughout the day. As the temperature rises and the sun warms up the snow surface, watch for clues that the snow is getting moist (look for wet, mushy snow). If your skis, sled, or boots are punching into wet snow, it's time to get off of (and out from underneath) steep slopes. Pay attention to aspects from east, south, west, and terrain features that absorb solar radiation (rocks, trees, cliffs) or harbor weak, shallow snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wet loose avalanche problems are in the cards for at least one more day. Yesterday, our Secesh snotel site (6540') saw a high temperature of 47F. Granite mountain weather station (7804') recorded a high of 44F (link here). In addition to yesterday's high temperatures at the upper elevation, last night only saw a light freeze (31F) as of 6 AM this morning. Today's weather forecast is calling for more of the same, clear, sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 30's and low 40's at higher elevations. Several days of above-average temperatures, light freeze at night, strong daytime solar radiation. We are checking all of the boxes for wet loose avalanche problems today.

    Pay attention to steep slopes that face south. You are most likely to encounter this problem on SE/S/SW/W facing slopes in the middle and upper elevations. Given the valley inversions and warmer temperatures aloft, don't rule out east-facing at upper elevation and west-facing at lower elevation.  Watch for the snow surface becoming soft and mushy as the day progresses. If you are punching into wet, weak snow, it's time to head to a different aspect and get off of steep slopes.

Avalanche Discussion

Today's advisory is sponsored by Mile High Powersports in McCall. Thank you for supporting the Payette Avalanche Center.

Our primary concern today is wet loose avalanches. This problem can be found on east through west-facing slopes and at all elevation bands. The timing of snow warming and becoming moist will vary depending on aspect and elevation. This snow problem is solved by timing. As the pros say, "Time it early". Get out early and travel when the snow surfaces are firm and expect the avalanche hazard to increase as the day progresses. Wet loose snow can release naturally around terrain features that absorb solar radiation (i.e. rocks, trees, cliffs). These avalanches can be human-triggered as well. If you find yourself sinking into wet, mushy snow, you need to get off steep slopes and head to a different aspect. You can also expect to find this problem where the snow is shallow and weak.

What a week it's been. The past 6 days have felt much more like April than February. Our snotel site at Secesh Summit (elevation 6540') recorded a high temperature of 44F on Thursday (the 10th) and Saturday (the 12th) saw a high temperature of 47F. We have watched wet snow move on slopes that barely face the sun. Wednesday there was a heavy fog that graced the mountains with its presence and a light rain/humidity crust was reported in several locations. Between the melt-freeze cycle and the rain/fog event, there are crusts to be found on nearly all aspects of the compass rose. Throw in some wind-scoured snow and you are almost guaranteed to find firm snow surfaces throughout the advisory area.

 

*** Check out our Observations Page to see what others are seeing...We are always looking for more Information from snowmobilers and skiers on snow and weather conditions. These observations help our forecasts and they help other users in and outside of the community. It can be quick with or without a photo…Use the Observations link at the top of the page to submit your observations. 

***Motorized users, please be aware that there are some areas of the Payette National Forest that are closed to motorized use, some of these closures are to protect wildlife and some are to protect other recreators.  Check out the Winter Travel Map below for details

https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd891395.pdf