Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanches continue to exist, especially on wind-loaded slopes at upper elevations.  Very strong winds and snow over the last several days have created thick wind slabs on the surface. Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows or a stiffening of the surface underfoot paying attention to signs of unstable snow, like shooting cracks.  These wind slabs can be large on their own, however, they could step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.

Deeper down in the snowpack, facets, and depth hoar near the ground continue to linger and have reached the tipping point on some slopes from the recent loading.   These persistent slab avalanches would be large taking with it most of the season's snowpack. Avoid slopes where you find obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses or shooting cracks. Cautious route-finding is essential as it's possible to trigger an avalanche from a distance away, avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees.   

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Very strong winds have been drifting snow into thicker wind slabs mainly near and above treeline.  With the box canyon effect we see in our mountains here, winds have been swirling and either upsloping or loading slopes.  Wind-drifted slabs could be over 2 feet thick on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Watch for obvious wind-loaded pillows and stiffening of the surface underfoot avoiding slopes where you find a foot or more of wind drifted snow. With such strong winds, you may find loading further down the slope than you'd typically find.   Shooting cracks on the surface are an indication that you've found unstable snow.  Triggering a slab on the surface has the possibility to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. Sticking to lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain without steep slopes overhead will provide safer skiing and riding options. 

     

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Below and near treeline terrain continues to remain the sweet spot for triggering a persistent slab avalanche that will fail on a facet and depth hoar layer near the ground.  Recently formed slabs rest on top of a very weak snowpack that was shallow prior to this last storm.   These avalanches would be large and could be 4 to 6 deep and able to propagate widely across the slope or terrain features. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like loud thunderous collapses and shooting cracks. Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees as it's possible to trigger an avalanche from the slopes below.  

Avalanche Discussion

What an incredibly windy season we've had. And the last week has been a perfect example of it with wind speeds consistently in the 20 to 40 mph range and gusts in the 60 to 80 mph range over several days. Today will feel like a reprieve from the winds even with winds expected to be in the teens and 20's throughout the day.  Temperatures are going to warm into the 30's under partly cloudy skies.  With warming temperatures and if the sun pops out, we may small loose wet snow avalanches in steep terrain at lower elevations.  Pay attention to the snow surface becoming wet or moist and head to a shadier aspect.  

Wednesday/Thursday's storm brought about a foot of snow with 1.27" of SWE and very strong swirling winds.  We saw several natural avalanches that most likely had peak instability Wednesday afternoon and evening.  There was a large natural avalanche below treeline coming close to a house on Twinning Road Wednesday evening from uncompacted inbounds terrain (similar to backcountry). This avalanche ran on the ground and was about 40 meters wide. There was another large avalanche on a westerly aspect out of the Peace Sign above the Williams lake trail.  

Very strong WSW winds have been drifting snow, loading slopes, and creating wind slabs mainly near and above treeline but may also extend below treeline on open exposed slopes. With such strong winds winds have been swirling and at time felt like they were coming from every which direction.  Expect to find wind slabs and loading in atypical places than what you'd expect with a southwesterly wind direction. 

The below and near treeline terrain is where many slopes prior to this latest storm had a shallow snowpack with facets and depth hoar that continued to linger from November snow and had been slow to heal or strengthen. At these elevations, we also had a significant layer of facets form on the surface during the prolonged period of high pressure on northerly aspects that got buried by Valentine's day storms and may now be buried in the mid-pack. With each significant loading event this season we've seen weak facets and depth hoar near the ground become reactive and produce avalanches. With recent loading and a more connected and reactive slab on the surface these layers will need time to adjust.

At upper elevations,  many, but not all slopes had a deeper snowpack prior to this last storm and these deeper buried weak layers had been showing signs of healing or were more difficult to trigger, buried underneath hard slabs from previous strong wind events.   At this upper elevation, it may be more difficult to trigger a deeper persistent slab avalanche, than areas at lower elevations, however, if you were to hit a sweet spot near likely trigger points, the consequences could be catastrophic. Avalanche paths that have already run this year, could also be more susceptible to sliding again. 

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