Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Several layers of weak snow are buried in the snowpack. The recent storm added weight to these weak layers, particularly in areas where winds built drifts and slabs. As the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on these layers gradually decreases, the possibility remains. Make your terrain selection accordingly and be alert to the consequences of being caught in a slide where you are traveling. Additionally, incoming snowfall today may not bond well to the old snow surface, making avalanches possible on steep slopes that are sheltered from the wind.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A loading event has brought improved skiing and riding conditions to our area, but our focus is still on how persistent weak layers will react to additional snowfall. Good things to keep in mind continually at Togwotee Pass are:

    1. Weak layers are buried ~2+' deep. These layers have produced large avalanches, sometimes triggered from large distances away, in this area. The pattern of activity outlined by these avalanches points to these layers being most unstable on slopes that face the sun, where they are accompanied by crusts, but they have also produced slides on shaded aspects. 
    2. A pile of large-grained, weak snow also exists near the ground across the middle elevations here. You are more likely to trigger slides on the weak layers higher up in the snowpack, but any slide triggered on this deeply buried weak snow is likely to be unsurvivable.

    The possibility of triggering a slide here will be on the table for some time to come. If you choose to enter avalanche terrain, be alert that at least one of these weak layers almost certainly exists in the snowpack underneath you. Even as the danger decreases we continue to advise cautious and conservative terrain selection. Be alert to the consequence of being caught in a large avalanche in the terrain you are recreating in.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION

    The onset of snowfall on Monday buried a variable snow surface, in addition to another mid-storm interface from clearing, variable skies yesterday. Temperatures are also expected to warm throughout snowfall today. I observed several avalanches that failed on Monday's interface, and I expect more may fail today with additional snowfall. It will take some time to see how new snow is bonding to old snow and thin crusts formed yesterday and take the time to observe how this interface will behave.

    The takeaway should be that new snowfall will move easily today in steep terrain regardless of exposure to the wind. This will hold particularly true if snowfall amounts end up on the higher end (8-10  inches). If not, expect this to be less of a problem, and expand your options accordingly. Regardless of amounts today, however, loose snow (sluffs) in steep, exposed terrain will continue to pose an additional hazard. Yesterday in the Snake River Range, I observed over 10 loose snow avalanches in consequential terrain and funneled features that certainly bordered on being large avalanches for "just" loose snow. Bear this in mind when choosing terrain today. 

    Mocassin Basin 9500' E aspect

    Photo: Cory Beattie

Avalanche Discussion

A long-running winter storm is impacting our region. Don't let the date on the calendar and the long periods of the good old perma-MODERATE danger we've had this year fool you, you'll be dealing with winter conditions out there today. We're looking to see over well over a foot of variable snowfall accumulation from the past 48 hours if this storm produces what is forecasted today. Moderate winds trending in different directions have easily pushed this snow around and built some thick slabs. When the wind blows like this it can build slabs in all sorts of terrain and on slopes where you often find sheltered powder. Be on the lookout for these slabs and be ready to avoid them where they exist. Slabs of new snow will be large enough to bury a person today.

The terrain you play in may change, but your practices, rituals, and systems should stay the same. Enjoy another taste of winter, keep it tight, and take some time to think about the range of hazards you'll be facing today.

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