Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You can trigger a dangerous slab avalanche without warning on some slopes like these human-triggered slides from East Beckwith Mountain and near Schuylkill Peak.  Don't let a lack of cracking and collapsing or the 'spring-like' weather convince you that avalanche conditions are safe.  The most hazardous slopes are often on the northern half of the compass and at upper elevations but can extend below treeline.  If you are uncertain about the snowpack on suspect aspects, then choose lower-angled terrain and low-consequence slopes to reduce your risk.  Southerly-facing terrain offers a less hazardous snowpack early in the day before sunshine and warm temperatures wet the snowpack.  If you see rollerballs and sink more than a few inches into a wet snowpack, head for colder snow or lower-angled terrain to prevent triggering a wet avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    2 to 4 feet of new snow has accumulated since March 3rd. That snow has settled into a slab over a variable distribution of small facets, surface hoar, and collapsible crusts. This new persistent slab avalanche problem is the most reactive on previously wind-loaded terrain. The avalanche problem becomes more spotty in distribution on lower-elevation wind-sheltered slopes. Previous wind-loading patterns are not observable as they are often covered by low-density snow that fell after last Thursday's extreme wind event. Consider evaluating the slab characteristics over these persistent weak layers in your area to identify problematic structures or manage the potential avalanche problem through your terrain choices. Such as choosing lower-angled slopes and/or avoiding high-consequence terrain features. 

    Some avalanches can break in the middle of the snowpack on a weak layer that formed during the prolonged drought in January and early February, like these triggered avalanches near East Beckwith Mountain.  A small chance exists for avalanches breaking near the ground on weak layers from early winter.

    A snowmobile triggered slab avalanche in the Kebler Pass area. March 8th. Photo: Care Flight

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As the sun warms the snow surface, wet loose avalanche activity will become possible. This avalanche problem will first develop on steep slopes that have rock outcrops, adding additional heat to the surrounding snow. In some areas, a small wet loose avalanche could pry out a larger slab avalanche. You will know this avalanche problem develops when you observe a few inches of wet snow or see fresh roller balls and new avalanche activity. Consider avoiding traveling on or under steep sunbaked slopes once this avalanche problem develops in your area. 

    These wet, loose avalanches grew larger when they pried slabs off the southeastern side of Cascade Mountain.

    (3/8/2025)

Avalanche Discussion

Two storms rolled through the area over the past week, depositing roughly 1 to 4 feet across the forecast zones, with areas in the Northwest Mountains receiving the most snowfall. Avalanche activity peaked during the storms, but human-triggered avalanches continue (list from the past week), including one accident just north of CBAC forecast boundaries near Marble.  The pattern of human involvement is easy to interpret; you can trigger a dangerous slab avalanche without warning signs.

This season has been characterized by a few significant stormy periods and several drought periods when nasty, persistent weak layers formed.  The stormy periods caused significant natural avalanche cycles, leaving a hard-to-predict patchwork of snowpack structures across the landscape, particularly on the north half of the compass.  The variation of snowpack structures you could encounter makes it difficult to make broad assumptions about the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on aspects highlighted by the Persistent Slab distribution rose.  You can make slope-specific observations to help identify problematic terrain, but digging in low-angled terrain nearby may misinform you of the structure on steep slopes.  Even though the danger rating is MODERATE, conditions remain tricky.  Conservative terrain selection offers the simplest and most effective way to manage the Persistent Slab problem.

Warming weather on Monday keeps the threat of wet avalanches going.  The snowpack is often less problematic on sunny slopes, particularly at mid and low elevation, as persistent weak layers are far less common than on northerly slopes.  As the sun and temperatures warm the snow surface, you may be able to find a window of nice riding conditions and reasonably safe travel conditions.  Once the snow surface becomes saturated, wet avalanche activity will be possible.  Cornice falls, although unlikely, could produce a surprise avalanche during the heat of the day.

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