Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will likely increase today as strong winds and snow will add stress to a layer of surface hoar buried 2 to 3’ deep. There were multiple human triggered avalanches yesterday and the conditions today will be more dangerous. Natural and human triggered avalanches will be more likely where touchy wind slabs are forming and in areas such as Portage and Girdwood where more snow is expected to fall. Cornices will likely fall and have the potential to trigger avalanches above you. Dangerous avalanche condtions exist today so the safest bet is to avoid traveling on or below steep and consequential terrain.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

We are sorry to report an avalanche resulting in multiple fatalities in the west fork of the Twentymile River yesterday afternoon. Details on this accident are still emerging, and we will share more information as it becomes available. Our sincere condolences go out to the friends and families of those involved. Preliminary information may be found in this article.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent Avalanches: There were several avalanches that were remotely triggered yesterday in Lynx Creek and two were triggered on Seattle Ridge. We know the avalanches in Lynx creek failed on a layer of surface hoar buried about a foot deep and it is likely responsible for the avalanches in Seattle Ridge. Several other skier triggered avalanches were reported on Sunday.

    Strong southeast winds (50+ mph) and 4 to 8” of snow is expected today which will make it easy to trigger an avalanche 2 to 3’ deep on a layer of buried surface hoar. These may be larger and even easier to trigger near Portage and Girdwood where 1 to 2’ of snow may fall before the end of the day. Many human triggered avalanches have been reported on this weak layer above 1500’. The avalanche danger is likely to rise in the afternoon as the storm intensifies. There will also be an increased chance of natural avalanches. 

    The amount of recent avalanches, especially ones being triggered remotely is telling us that it is that the snowpack is already touchy. Adding snow and strong winds today will add even more stress to this weak layer creating dangerous avalanche conditions. Recent avalanche activity, blowing snow, shooting cracks, and whumpfing sounds, are all clues telling you that the snow is being stressed to the point where all it may need is a trigger on a slope that is steep enough to slide. Keep in mind that traveling tests may not provide bullseye information with this type of problem. It may not be worth trying to outsmart the problem. The safest option is to choose lower angle slopes that are shelterd from the wind if you get out today. 

    (3/4/2025)

    Large avalanche that was remotely triggered on Tuesday in Triangle Bowl on Seattle Ridge

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Strong southeast winds will be actively loading slopes with touchy wind slabs 3’ deep or deeper.  As ridgetop winds increase to 50+ mph today natural avalanches are possible and it will be easy to trigger a wind slab avalanche on slopes exposed to the wind especially if they are forming on top of the buried surface hoar layer mentioned above. Look for recent avalanches and active wind loading. Shooting cracks and snow that feels stiff underneath you are good indicators you are traveling on a wind slab. It may not be worth trying to outsmart the problem. 

    Cornices will likely fall, potentially triggering natural avalanches on slopes above you. Traveling under these is not recommend today. 

    Wet snow avalanches are a concern below 2,000’ but will likely become less of an issue if the rain/snow line lowers in the afternoon. 

    Glide Avalanches: Glide cracks may continue to open and could spontaneously release into glide avalanches. The only way to manage this problem is to avoid spending time under open glide cracks. 

    (3/4/2025)

    Blowing snow on Sunburst. 

    Photo: Daniel Krueger

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