Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A colder temperature trend is limiting the threat of another wet slab avalanche, while our focus is transitioning back to the most suspect area for a lingering persistent slab avalanche to occur. Those most suspect areas would typically be a steep slope with a variable snowpack depth across the terrain feature, creating trigger points where your weight could affect old, weak layers in the bottom half of the snowpack. Think of a steep rocky face, for example, or the start zone of an avalanche path that is holding a below-average snowpack depth due to avalanche activity earlier this winter. Many other areas offer generally safe avalanche conditions.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    The distribution of the current persistent slab avalanche problem has narrowed after last week's heat wave. Weak layers in the upper snowpack have become less concerning as they often saw melt water drain through them. Now, the focus has turned back to old facet layers in the bottom half of the snowpack. Don't expect to see any feedback or obvious red flags from this avalanche problem. The problem will remain quiet until it receives a heavy load from a cornice fall, or a light load that finds just the right trigger point where the slab thins above those facets. Persistent slab instabilities are even more isolated below treeline, but you should still stay alert on very steep or unusually shallow slopes.   

    A large persistent slab on Gothic triggered by a shallower wet avalanche on 3/25.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A colder temperature trend is putting wet avalanche concerns to bed. If you do find a steep slope where you sink deeply into wet snow, you may have found an isolated exception. Traveling in steep terrain with this type of wet snowpack is not recommended. 

    A large, messy wet slab that ran Thursday on Gibson Ridge.  

Avalanche Discussion

Last week was busy, with many wet and dry avalanches occurring. You can read a detailed weekly summary here, or watch a highlight video here.

Another night of below-freezing temperatures and a general colder temperature trend is putting wet avalanche concerns to bed. The water source for those wet avalanches is being turned off, as the surface of the snowpack sees less melt. However, the free water that has accumulated within the snowpack will take longer to freeze. There will still be a few areas where surface curst break down and expose the lingering wet snowpack below.

The persistent slab avalanche problem is stubborn across the forecast area. Requiring a heavy load or just the right trigger point to affect old, weak layers in the bottom half of the snowpack. The distribution of this avalanche problem will be the most isolated across the NW Mountain forecast area, where the snowpack is more often deep across terrain features. The SE Mountain forecast area more typically has a shallower snowpack, and old weak layers are more commonly well-developed. Last week, this human-triggered avalanche on Mt Axtell stepped down to an old layer of facets and is an example of the current concern. This old observation from Cement Creek has a section highlighting the notably weak facets on the north side of Double Top. Those well-developed facets are a good example of what you can more commonly find in the SE Mountain forecast area on some suspect terrain features. 

Regions covered