Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It is still possible for a person to trigger a very large and destructive avalanche on a buried weak layer 2 to 3' deep. This layer has been an issue for the past month and shows no signs of going away anytime soon. The best way to manage this concern is to stick to low angle terrain and avoid steep slopes overhead. In addition, keep an eye out for lingering wind slabs up to 1' deep at upper elevations and wet loose avalanches, cornice fall, and glide avalanches caused by sun and warm temperatures. 

__________________________________

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Avalanche Accident:  We are deeply saddened to report a fatal avalanche accident on Saturday, on the back side of Seattle Ridge in Turnagain Pass. Our preliminary report can be found here. We are working on collecting more information and will publish a full accident report as soon as we have all of the information from the event.

Sean Sullivan, Cory Davis, and Travis Temple will be hosting a free avalanche awareness and rescue training event in memory of Tucker Challans on Saturday, March 29, at Alaska West Air in Nikiski. See the flyer in the media gallery below for more information.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: There was a fatal avalanche accident on the back side of Seattle Ridge in Warmup Bowl on Saturday in which the rider was caught and buried, and did not survive. On Friday, there were at least 4 large human-triggered avalanches on the back side of Seattle Ridge.

    Despite the benign weather today, we are still concerned about large human triggered avalanches on a weak layer of buried surface hoar about 2 to 3' deep that exists throughout the area. This layer has proven to be exceptionally persistent and has been causing dangerous avalanches for almost a month.  Our ability to assess this weak layer using snowpit tests or other observations is very limited due to how deeply it is buried and the track record of false stable test results. Even slopes with many tracks on them are not necessarily safe with this type of weak layer. The only reliable way to ensure you don't trigger an avalanche on this weak layer is to stick to low angle terrain and avoid slopes connected to steeper terrain overhead.

    We are also tracking a layer of low-density storm snow from last week that has shown signs of not bonding well with the snow beneath. This layer is about 1' deep and should be gaining strength, but is worth having on your radar. 

    (3/23/2025)

    Avalanche in Warm-Up Bowl where a snowmachiner was caught, buried, and did not survive on Saturday March 22nd.

    Photo: CNFAC

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    In addition to the persistent problem, there are a few surface snow issues to keep an eye out for today. Wind slabs that formed 24 to 48 hours ago are expected to be up to 1' deep along ridgelines, cross-loaded gullies, and rollovers at upper elevations, and could still be possible for a person to trigger in isolated areas. 

    The past few days temperatures have been creeping up in the afternoon and it is starting to feel like the beginning of spring meltdown. Wet loose avalanches have been releasing naturally on steep solar aspects (east, south, west) as they heat up in the sun later in the day. These are typically not large enough to bury a person, but in bigger terrain, they can grow large enough to be dangerous and the debris is heavy and difficult to get out of if you are caught.  

    Cornice fall is a normal part of the transition to a spring snowpack and can happen randomly while cornices are heating up in the sun. Try to avoid spending time underneath cornices, especially if they are getting a lot of sun, and give them a wide berth if you are traveling along ridgelines.

    Glide avalanche activity has also been picking up this week as another sign of the gradual transition to a spring snowpack. These large and destructive avalanches release randomly and are best avoided. 

Regions covered