Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Weird weather breeds weird avalanche conditions. For today, it’s all about managing your travels to avoid tickling one of the many weak storm interfaces below thick, dangerous slabs of snow - all precariously close to failure. Wind-drifted slopes, in particular, will remain reactive and can produce the largest avalanches. Throw moderate rainfall into the mix and conditions may turn more dynamic before getting better. Travel with a conservative mindset by avoiding slopes over 30 degrees and heed signs the snow surface is getting too wet like rollerballs or pinwheels suggesting it’s time to exit the mountains.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    The official seasonal transition to spring arrived on March 20, and the mountains just received one to three feet of snow since. The deepest accumulations occurred in the Selkirk and Cabinet Mountains, but portions of the Bitterroots and in the Silver Valley just received the largest Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) load this season. This amounts to a broad brush 2 to 4 inches of SWE in 72 hours. This substantial new snow volume and water weight has built dense, cohesive slabs across all aspects and elevations. These slabs now sit atop more storm layers that formed between March 12 to 18. 

    The most recent load is placing significant stress on a variety of interfaces (hardness changes, subtle grain differences, and crust) in the upper snowpack, with stability teetering near the edge. Steady elevated wind speeds have also been effective at drifting the denser snowfall into deeper drifts or slabs below leeward-facing ridges and gullies. While most natural activity has likely waned, human-triggered avalanches remain likely on slopes over 30 degrees in steepness.

    (3/16/2025)

    Looking across the right flank of a skier triggered slide on an east-facing slope around 6400 feet. The slide broke over 300 feet wide and around 2 feet deep, and likely failed at either a recent storm interface or in softer snow above a sun crust. Blue Mountain, Selkirk Mountains. March 16, 2025.

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As warm air overtakes the region Sunday evening, this quickly drives the rain line from between 3,000 to 4,000 feet up to 7,000 feet. Fortunately, rainfall totals look manageable - around an inch or less of liquid water. However, as the rain saturates the snow surface, the drier storm snow will start losing cohesion and be more susceptible to sluff downhill from ski or machine pressure. Wet snow hazards will migrate up in elevation as the warming period evolves.

    The farther down slopes these wet loose slides travel, the more likely they are to entrain additional snow volume and make a larger, more dangerous pile at the bottom. If you observe natural rollerballs, the snow glops to your boards, or you post-hole past your shins into wet, rotten snow, it’s time to call it a day.

    (3/12/2025) Photo: Izzy Davis

Avalanche Discussion

While conditions in the towns and valleys may seem unchanged, multiple significant weather systems this week, culminating in today’s storm, have dramatically reshaped the mountain landscape. Areas above 4,000 feet have received many feet of snow over the last 10 days, with substantial cornice growth and extensive slab building due to strong southwest winds. The forecast staff on Friday started seeing a glimpse of our more recent hazards driving current conditions - natural avalanches and weaker layers transitioning from non-propagating to propagating failures in snowpack tests. 

Today’s recommendation is fairly straightforward - the snowpack needs more time to settle out before we can step out into steeper, more complicated terrain with a bit of confidence. Don’t get lulled into a false sense of security if the obvious signs of unstable snow like cracking or collapsing are missing. It may take venturing onto just enough steep slopes to find trouble.

We are not dealing with avalanche problems that are hard to see or predict like deeply buried or lingering stubborn persistent weak layers. Instead, we have a clear hazard - large volumes of new snow sitting above diverse flavors of interfaces, not one in particular more glaring than any other. This makes paying attention to nature's clues extremely important and not allowing yourself or your group to venture into steeper terrain or below steeper hazards with no exit. Play a safe and conservative game in the mountains, and when stability is the question…terrain is always the number one answer.

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