Avalanche forecast

Ogden

Issued Dec 14, 2025valid to Dec 15, 2025Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

MODERATE avalanche danger can be found on upper west through north through east slopes above 8,500 feet, where it's still possible to trigger a 1-2 foot thick slab failing on weak old snow from this fall (persistent weak layer). You may not get any warning signs of instability—like cracking and collapsing—before triggering a slide large enough to bury you.

Keep an eye on how the snow under your feet changes with the day's warm temperatures. If you start to see fresh roller balls or pinwheels, it's time to change aspects or head home.

Avalanche problems

Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
Old snow from October/November continues to form a persistent weak layer of faceted snow on slopes facing west through north through east aspects at upper, and the upper portion of mid elevations. Although triggering an avalanche is becoming less likely, human-triggered avalanches 1–2 feet deep and up to 100 feet wide remain possible. The snowpack is becoming less vocal in the past few days, and is less likely to give you warning signs—like cracking and collapsing—before you trigger a slide large enough to bury you.

We feel it important to acknowledge that for some operations in the Ogden zone, especially trending farther east towards Eden, there is more of a vegetation than an avalanche problem. Fingers crossed for more snow soon...

Recent Activity

No new avalanches were reported in the backcountry yesterday.

Snow and Weather

Are we experiencing fool's spring this week, or did fool's winter just get us last weekend? Hard telling, not knowing. Either way, temps continued to trend 10-20°F higher than historical norms since mid-week, with some mountain temps nearing 50°F yesterday. The putt-putt course was mostly snow-free at Snowbasin when Nikki and I visited on Thursday—a sign of the times.

This morning, under scattered skies, it's 42°F at Powder Mountain. The inversion continues with temps reaching the low 40s °F near the Ogden Skyline at 4 am, with close to freezing temperatures near 8500 feet. Modest light winds out of the SW continue after shifting from the N overnight.

Today, expect partly cloudy skies with a slight uptick in winds out of the SW into the afternoon. Temps continue to trend above normal, with mountain highs hitting the high 30s-low 40s °F. That persistent ridge continues as the main driver of our weather. While the peak of the heat's effects seems to have passed, keep an eye on warming snow, especially on solar slopes today.

Looking ahead, there is a pattern shift mid-next week with the potential for a weak storm to sneak in through the weekend, but be careful what you wish for. Precip and active weather are more exciting, but warm temps and water can be messy. We were spared from the hot, wet atmospheric river that tracked to our north earlier this week, which left our friends in the PNW without most of the snow they started with...as well as flooded mountain towns. The long-range models—yes, even the GFS Kool-Aid Trent talked about yesterday—are wobbly at best right now with how much water we'll get by Christmas, and the snow lines.

Fool's spring, fool's winter, but for me, forecasting the weather in the long range feels like a bit of a fool's errand right now. I'll just keep returning to Jim Steenburgh's 100 Inch Storm blog post to remind myself that things can change quite quickly for the better...

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures