Avalanche forecast

Hatcher Pass

Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The avalanche danger is MODERATE at mid and upper elevations. Below 2500' the danger is LOW. 

Recent snow continues to settle and avoid pronounced wind effect, but it is still possible to trigger a PERSISTENT SLAB avalanche 2-3.5' deep, failing on weak snow near the ground. 

Lower-angle slopes, cautious terrain selection, and patience are a few of our only tools to manage this problem in the near term. 

Today, temperatures, clouds, and wind will increase ahead of the next storm set to impact the region tonight through Saturday.

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Join us for our next State of the Snowpack chat on Wednesday, January 14th, at the Blue and Gold Boardshop in Wasilla with guest speaker Adam Sullivan, the mountain manager from Skeetawk.

Winter is here! Come and celebrate with us at the 8th Annual HPAC Cabin Fever Reliever on Saturday, February 7th! More info and tickets here. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    For over two months, our thin snowpack sat stagnant, faceting and rotting under cold, clear skies. Periods of extreme winds in December scoured this thin snowpack and created dense, isolated slabs. This is now the base of our snowpack. This week, 1.5-2.5 feet of low-density snow fell across the forecast area. Recent snow fell without significant wind effect, so slab formation has been slow to evolve, and the new snow is still relatively loose and incohesive on sheltered aspects. Despite this, it will still be possible to trigger an avalanche 2-3.5' deep on old weak snow near the ground, on all aspects at mid and upper elevations. 

    • Avalanches will be more likely on slopes steeper than about 30°. This is a problem you can manage by keeping your slope angles shallow. 
    • Avalanches will be easier to trigger on smooth, firm slabs formed in gullies during December's wind, where the terrain could amplify the consequences of even a small avalanche. 
    • Whumphing and collapsing of the snowpack are indications that there is weak snow failing near the ground. Hand pits and pole probes will help reveal if you're traveling over old, weak snow or firm slabs.

    The snowpack has poor structure, little strength, but currently lacks much energy. Dry loose avalanches are possible on steep, upper elevation slopes where the new snow didn't sluff off during the storm. With increasing winds, be on the lookout for drifting snow, as this could easily stiffen the new snow and increase instabilities. 

    Good travel protocol can help limit the consequences of an avalanche. Travel one at a time, choose safe points to stop, and keep eyes on your partners.

    (1/8/2026)

    A party triggered this avalanche on Microdot Bench Wednesday. 

Avalanche Discussion

Early this week, Hatcher Pass received upwards of two feet of low-density snow, a welcome relief to the months-long drought and series of extreme winds. Recent snow fell on a variety of surfaces, including dry ground and rocks, loose facets, breakable crusts, and firm wind slabs. 

Overall structure in the snowpack is poor, with new snow overlying old, weak, faceted snow and isolated slabs throughout the forecast area. Uncertainty exists about how the snowpack will adjust to its new load, but it's likely that Hatcher Pass will have a lingering, persistent slab problem that will be slow to resolve. Recent snow has settled over 20% in the last few days, increasing stability but also leading towards a more cohesive slab. 

Travel conditions are challenging, with deep, bottomless powder only likely to become more upside-down with the incoming wind effect.

Ski with a partner, practice with your rescue gear, and use safe travel protocols like skiing one at a time and stopping at points of safety. 

Early-season obstacles such as willows, rocks, and ice still exist below this new, light snow. Travel is difficult, and trail breaking is arduous. 

Recent Avalanches:

Yesterday, a party triggered a small avalanche on the bench below Microdot. Another experienced local encountered audible collapsing while ascending Eldorado before turning around. Several parties skied the south ridge of Marmot and began working into steeper terrain without consequence. On Wednesday, forecasters in the field observed a number of storm slabs that failed naturally during or late in the storm on Tuesday. See all recent observations here.

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