Flathead Range & Glacier NP

A lingering potential for triggering large avalanches warrants maintaining safe travel practices and conservative decisions. Sheltered slopes less than 35 degrees that aren't above terrain traps offer the best, safest riding. Go one at a time and keep your partners in sight. 

Monday, I described the snowpack as "deceptive." A long-time local rider commented that he'd been thinking a lot about Cody Townsend's "Normalization of Deviance" presentation from the 2021 winter. Normalization of deviance is the concept that if deviating from safe practices doesn't immediately result in catastrophe, the unsafe practices become acceptable and even a new normal. The concept developed during the investigation of the 1986 Challenger Space Shuttle disaster. 

What's the connection that rider saw between my description and that abstract concept? Dangerous avalanches on steep slopes are possible right now - not guaranteed or even likely. So riders can venture onto some steep slopes without triggering slabs. They tell their friends. They see tracks from others on steep slopes, without triggered slabs. So it seems normal to ride steep slopes. So more people start riding steep slopes. It's akin to launching a Space Shuttle in temperatures at which data shows an O-ring leaks. Nothing bad happens, so you launch again, and again. Until the spacecraft blows up. 

Watching Cody's presentation is a great way to see how a rider applies this concept to riding in avalanche terrain. I highly recommend it. 

In areas with a relatively deep snowpack, people aren't reporting widespread signs of instability (Few collapses and unalarming test scores). At present, "relatively deep" is 100 cm or more. That's the deceptive part, because the snowpack structure remains inherently unstable: a well-consolidated slab over a well-developed persistent weak layer of large facets. The slab is thick and hard enough that a person's weight doesn't produce regular collapses, cracks, or remotely-triggered avalanches. So less feedback, and more temptation to launch onto steep slopes. Yet a real potential for a Challenger-like catastrophe, if you hit a spot where the slab is thinner and softer, or the weak layer is less sintered. And there are plenty of spots like that in early-season conditions like this. 

Feedback has continued to be more regular in areas with a shallower snowpack, so it's easier to stop the countdown and call off the launch. The collapses my partner and I experienced Wednesday were nerve-wrackingly loud and long. We repeatedly measured the steepness of the slopes above and around us, and stuck to terrain no more than 30 degrees with limited overhead hazard. We were not deviating from safe practices.

That remains our recommendation - don't deviate from safe travel practices and launch into the terrain where it remains possible to trigger avalanches large enough to bury or injure you. That's regardless of whether you're experiencing signs of instability. The structure remains inherently problematic, and launching onto steep slopes is a lottery, one in which you hope not to lose. 

We've dropped the Wind Slab avalanche problem. Any slabs that remain sensitive to a rider's weight or the weight of a snowmachine are isolated. There's plenty of soft snow at the surface, so if winds pick up, expect a new generation of slabs to develop.  

Training: Now's a great time to hone your companion rescue skills. Transceiver parks are open at Whitefish Mountain Resort, one at the summit and one adjacent to Grey Wolf. Both are accessible to snowmachines. Or focus for a full day at our Ladies Companion Rescue Clinic on Saturday. You can get more details about training and education opportunities events on our events calendar.

Observations - Thanks to everyone who's been utilizing our new observation submission page. Try it out and help your community by sharing what you see in the backcountry. The form requires you to fill out the location fields and put a dot on a map. Be as specific or vague as you want. Our new Observation View page highlights signs of instability and allows you to filter by date or zone to pull out reports relevant to your objectives.