Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Over the past 24 hours, a couple inches of snow fell across the zone with moderate SW winds. Fresh snow and winds mean wind slabs and cornices build. The prevailing winds have been out of the SW, so I’d expect to find fresh wind loading on NE-E-NW slopes above tree line. Today, if you can steer around the wind slabs on steep slopes, you’ll avoid the biggest avalanche concern.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Fresh wind slabs and wind loading are becoming more obvious than before this past storm. On Thursday we were able to find wind slabs on a ridgeline that cracked from our skis. Large cornices are starting to form on ridgelines, which is a great indication that fresh wind slabs are present. The wind loaded slopes we encountered and observed were on NE-N-NW slopes. If you can avoid these areas, you'll avoid the primary avalanche problem.

    (12/29/2022) Photo: J Thompson

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    As the new snow settles, be aware of signs of instability such as whoofing, cracking and settling. So far, the new snow isn't showing signs of instability, but the upper portion of the snowpack can change quickly, so keep a close eye on changing conditions. Overcast skis and mild temperatures should keep the new snow in it's current state today.

    (12/29/2022)

    Skiing through new snow at tree line

    Photo: J Thompdson

Avalanche Discussion

New snow has starting to pile up. 8-16’’ of new snow this week, with 1-3’’ more forecast for today. Moderate winds will help load leeward slopes today. So far, the new snow looks to be bonding well to the snow beneath. But, as it continues to add up, avalanche concerns within the new snow will be a question. As the new snow starts to settle and turn into a slab, we’ll need to keep a close eye on whether a storm slab or weak layer develop. Stable weather conditions are forecast for the next 4 days, with a possible return to snow later this week.

Rain crust - A rain crust can be found in the lower elevation snowpack (below 4500 ft). Temperatures above 4500 ft. stayed cold enough this week to not form the crust. The rain crust can be found about 2-3 ft below the snow surface with weak snow below it. Snow above and below the crust look to be bonding well, but once again, we need to keep an eye on the crust layer. If faceting continues in that part of the snowpack, it could become a weakness sooner than later. We know there’s faceting happening there because of the temperature gradient in that area. Wherever there’s a temperature gradient, there’s also a ‘Vapor Pressure Gradient’. Vapor pressure is what turns strong snow into weak snow. Since there is a strong temperature gradient around the crust, it’s important that we pay close attention to the changes. Hopefully the new snow will insulate that portion of the snowpack and help equalize the temperature gradient to slow down the faceting process.

Be aware that improving avalanche conditions doesn’t mean a green light. Natural avalanches are unlikely, but human triggered avalanches are possible. Don’t let your guard down! Keep an eye out for signs of instability and continue to manage terrain to minimize your exposure.

We can learn so much from you! Please tell us what you see out there. IPAC launched a new OBSERVATION PLATFORM last week. You should check it out. It’s much simpler than the previous version, plus it’s linked to the National Avalanche database so the information can be used on a much larger scale. Enjoy the pow and stay on the right side of the crack!

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