Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You can trigger wet avalanches on steep slopes at all elevations.  Until the weather cools down and stabilizes our snowpack, continue to avoid traveling on or under slopes greater than 35 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The higher elevations of the east-south have seen multiple days of above-freezing temperatures and continued rainfall.  Significant precipitation (up to .50 in of rain) on Monday will lead to water percolating deeper and deeper into our shallow snowpack, which will weaken the overall structure.  Lower elevations will likely see their first day of warm temperatures and rain.  At these lower elevations, the snowpack has likely stayed cold and may be capped with a freezing rain crust.  Once this freezing rain crust breaks down, expect dangerous avalanche conditions to soon follow as a dry snowpack gets moist.  These wet slabs are notoriously hard to forecast for and manage, so avoid traveling on and under steep slopes until the weather cools down.

    (12/23/2022)

    You may be able to trigger wet slabs like this on Monday. 

    Photo: NPS Rainier Rangers

Avalanche Discussion

Today was warm and moist in the east south with Sedge Ridge reporting a high of 44 degrees!  The east-side invsersion has been strong the past few days, however it started breaking down today, with warm air filtering into lower elevations. Sunday was the first day that Sawmill Flats has gotten above the freezing mark in sometime.  

If you thought Sunday was gross, then well, Monday morning might even be worse.  Weather forecasts are pointing at another stormy, wet, and warm day out there.  Winds will also become quite strong and gusty during the early hours of the day as the front pushes through. These winds should taper during the afternoon hours and become more westerly.  With that, expect another day of tough travel conditions across the east-south.  Going forward, the forecast looks more promising with dropping snow levels and continued moisture, so do those snow dances!

If you get out into the east-south, let us know what you see by submitting an observation!

Thanks for reading!

 

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