Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will rise to HIGH as a potent storm impacts the area, bringing up to 2" of water or 2' of snow above 2000' in the next 24 hours. We already had a complex and dangerous snowpack setup and this storm will be adding fuel to the fire. Large wet avalanches, glide avalanches, or avalanches on buried weak layers are all likely. Smaller avalanches within the new snow and in wind loaded areas are almost certain. We strongly recommend avoiding avalanche terrain today and steering clear of runout zones of overhead avalanche paths. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: We have seen a very active week of wet snow avalanches, with several large glide avalanches running into valley bottoms. There were large wet slab avalanches in the Girdwood Valley, near Lost Lake, and Carter Lake area. We continue to see wet loose activity on steep solar aspects.

    A major spring storm is impacting the area today with very strong winds and heavy precipitation. The big question is, how high will the rainline be? Models are estimating rainline at around 1500 to 1700' in Turangain Pass, which is surprisingly low given the very warm temperatures recently. If that is correct, then we can expect wet snow avalanches to be limited to lower elevations. However, since the snowpack was already wet and did not form a solid crust before the storm there is still potential for very large wet avalanches to run to valley bottoms. 

    Glide avalanche activity is also expected to continue with the added water in the snowpack. These have been releasing at an alarming rate for the past week and creating very large and destructive avalanches. Given the uncertainty of how the snowpack will react to this rapid addition of rain and snow, we recommend avoiding avalanche terrain today and steering clear of runout zones of overhead avalanche paths. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    The buried weak layer of surface hoar and facets from mid-February is still lingering in the snowpack about 1 to 3' deep. Despite being buried for seven weeks now, this is the first very heavy storm that this weak layer has experienced and it would not be surprising to see some very large natural avalanches releasing on this layer or potentially stepping down to this layer after a smaller avalanche releases naturally.  The big picture remains the same, avoid avalanche terrain and runout zones of overhead avalanche paths. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Certain
    Size
    1–2

    If the weather models are correct and we see 2" of water or up to 2' of snow in the next 24 hours, we can be almost certain that natural avalanches will occur within the new snow. These will be most likely above 2000' where dry snow is falling and strong winds are transporting snow onto leeward slopes. Avalanches will also be likely in wind-sheltered areas that receive up to a foot or more of new snow. Storm slabs and wind slabs will become more likely throughout the day as the precipitation continues to accumulate. 

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