Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  Human triggered avalanches 1-2 feet in depth are possible.  The most likely avalanche problem to encounter today will be thin windslabs that have recently formed.  The most dangerous problem is a weak layer of snow buried 1-2 feet beneath the most recent storm snow that remains reactive in isolated locations.  Wet loose avalanche will also be a concern on steep sunny slopes that have wet snow.  

Avalanche Forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8am.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate NE winds have been active in mid and upper elevations over the last 24 hours.   Shallow wind slabs (~2-4 inches) were observed on 3/29 in the mid-elevations of the Continental zone.  These slabs were unreactive however, some small shooting cracks were present.  This indicates that small shallow pockets of wind slab could be triggered in steep and or unsupported terrain.  Winds are forecasted to continue to be moderate through Sunday.  The snow at the surface is old and is less succeptible to transport than new snow.  With the forecasted wind speeds, additional wind slab development is not expected in most areas.

    Expect for these wind slabs to gain strength over the coming days and become less and less reactive.  Watch for signs of instability such as shooting cracks that would indicate wind slabs still have the energy needed to produce an avalanche.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    For the last 10-plus days, we have been tracking a layer of buried surface hoar covered by 2 feet of snow near the coast that decreases to only 4 inches at the far northern end of our forecast area.  Numerous snowpack observations have found that this layer is laid over and mixed with other grain types along the Thompson Pass road corridor.  This allows for a trend towards lower likelihood for avalanche propagation.  This has been reiterated by the hundreds of tracks that have been laid down in our forecast area over the last week with very little human triggered avalanches observed or reported.

    We remain concerned about this layer in terrain outside of our forecast area, where there have been reports that this layer is more preserved and has shown signs of being reactive in snowpits and human triggered avalanches.  Unfortunately, details on how recent human triggered avalanches have occured is unavailable.

    Buried surface hoar can persist and remain active for an extended period. Any area where well-preserved crystals are found below the overlying slab may be capable of producing avalanches for quite some time. Remain diligent and assess the snowpack on a slope-by-slope basis in remote or unfamiliar terrain.  Natural settlement of the overlying slab, temperature increase, and wind can all increase cohesion, which can increase the sensitivity of this weak layer where it is present.

     

     

     

    (3/19/2025)

     Natural avalanche in the books that likely failed on 3/16 BSH

    Photo: Eagan Gleasson

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Warm temperatures day and night have been affecting our snowpack at low elevations and on sunny aspects. Increasing ambient temperatures and solar radiation will increase the likelihood for wet loose during the heat of the day. Cornice fall will also become an increasing possibility as we begin our transition to a spring snowpack.  Overcast skies today will likely limit wet loose activity, however, the sun will likely pop out at some point, especially in the Continental zone.  Sun and temperature crusts have formed on solar aspects that will initially prevent wet loose activity.  Once the heat of the day breaks down these crusts, wet loose activity will become possible.  The first area to become active will be the steep rocky terrain where the sun's energy is more effectively absorbed by the dark color of rocks and then transmitted into the surrounding snow surface.  Pay attention to where the sun is in the sky; wet loose hazards will peak on a slope when the sun becomes perpendicular.

     Steep terrain that produces wet loose activity will also have the potential for slab avalanches to fail naturally or be human-triggered.   Avoid steep terrain that is being heated up by the sun.  Even small slopes can be dangerous if they are above terrain traps or exposure.  

    Avoid exposure to areas with wet snow during the heat of the day.

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

None reported

Forecast Discussion:

With Thompson Pass being extremely busy this time of year, great weather, and excellent travel conditions, users will be accessing terrain that is outside of the core forecast area.  It is strongly advised for users to remain diligent and be suspect of the snowpack when traveling into new zones and valleys.  

North wind that kicked up over the last few days have created thin wind slabs.  This has mainly decreased the riding quality in areas exposed to this wind.  These wind slabs are thin enough and spotty enough that they don't pose a major issue especially as time goes on and they gain strength.  Expect to find small pockets of wind slab that could remain reactive in steep terrain.  The one good thing about the wind, is in some areas it has knocked over surface hoar that was forming recently at the surface.  This will allow future snowfall to bond better to the current surface where this has occurred.

Buried surface hoar remains a concern. However, the likelihood of human triggered avalanches is decreasing, especially along the Thompson Pass road corridor, where a well defined preserved layer has not been identified.  There continue to be reports of users outside our forecast area who are finding the 3/16 buried surface hoar layer as preserved and reactive in stability tests.  Continue to look at the interface of the most recent snow to try and identify in tact faceted snow on a slope by slope basis.  Avoid travel in steep terrain in areas where faceted snow is found beneath the recent snow.

Buried surface hoar can remain reactive for long periods; don't assume that time will necessarily heal this layer.  For example, a layer of buried surface hoar that was buried on Valentine's day has been responsible for multiple fatalities in the Turnagain Pass area, with the most recent accident on 3/22.  This is not to say that we have the same setup; we do not. However, this is simply an example of how buried surface hoar can remain reactive for long periods.  

Additional Information:

Watch out for cornices. A couple of cornice falls have been observed in the Continental region.

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 3/29 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow March Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    0    58     18 N/O     Thompson Pass    0    0   N/O     ~24    ~500 Nicks    0    0    146    15 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   22    5 N/O

Regions covered