Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

Avalanche conditions remain very dangerous as the storm continues to impact the Seward area today. Natural and human-triggered avalanches 1 to 2' deep are likely as steady precipitation and strong winds continue. This may also cause larger avalanches failing deeper in the snowpack. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

FRIDAY'S AVALANCHE OUTLOOK:  We are expecting to see the weather quiet down tomorrow, which should improve avalanche conditions. The main concerns will be the same as today, with a slightly lower chance of triggering an avalanche. The most likely places to run into trouble will be in steep, wind-loaded terrain at upper elevations. We will publish our next avalanche forecast on Saturday.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

End of Season Operations: We have transitioned to our late season schedule. We will issue avalanche forecasts on Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday for the second half of April. We will issue our final forecast of the season on Sunday, April 27.

Risk management research: If you have been traveling in avalanche terrain for at least one season and want to help avalanche researchers develop new tools to assist individuals with managing risk in avalanche terrain, check out this 1-2 minute survey. Participants will be entered to win prizes from Jones Snowboards, BCA, and more!

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: We haven't gotten a good look since this most recent storm started, but it is very likely there has been new avalanche activity. This includes storm and wind slabs at upper elevations and wet snow avalanches below 2000'.

    This system is expected to linger in the Seward zone longer than the rest of our forecast areas. We can expect to see another 6 to 10" snow at upper elevations today, which will fall on top of the 10 to 18" that fell yesterday. Strong southeasterly winds will continue to blow all of this new snow into touchy slabs. If you are considering getting out for a storm day today, it will be important to avoid traveling on or below steep terrain.

    Cornices have been growing and collapsing during the active weather over the past two weeks. We can expect this to continue as the storm continues today. 

    Estimated storm totals from Tuesday at midnight through Thursday morning: 

    • Girdwood: 2.5" Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)/2' snow above 2000'
    • Turnagain Pass: 1.5" SWE/1-1.5' snow
    • Summit Lake:  0.7" SWE/6-8" snow
    • Lost Lake: 1.5-2" SWE/10-18" snow

     

    (4/17/2025)

    Snow totals from 4 am Thursday through 4 am Friday. Most of the snow in the northern zones will fall between 4 am and 6 am, but the storm is expected to linger in Seward through the day.

    Photo: NWS Anchorage

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Wet avalanches remain a concern in all areas today. We have limited info with the extent of natural avalanche activity during yesterday's storm, but with rain up to 1500 to 2000', it is likely there has been a variety of wet snow avalanches. Glide avalanches will remain a concern today. These are large and unpredictable, and the only way to manage the problem is to avoid traveling under open glide cracks.

    (4/15/2025)

    Fresh glide avalanche seen in PMS Bowl on Magnum Ridge. This overran the common skin track to gain the ridge.

    Photo: Ari Stiassny

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