Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The weather is clearing but the avalanche conditions remain dangerous, especially at higher elevations. It will be easy to trigger an avalanche where winds have recently blown snow into steep terrain. These will likely be 1 to 2 feet deep on their own, but they have the potential to trigger a massive avalanche failing 4 to 6' deep or deeper on weak snow buried in the middle of the snowpack. Look for safer conditions and better riding in terrain that has been protected from the wind, and consider avoiding steep alpine terrain entirely while the snowpack has more time to settle.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Today is looking to be the first day of fair weather following this weekend's storm, and that is a dangerous place to be in terms of avalanche accidents. The feedback we get from the snowpack today will be much more subtle than what we have seen for the past week, but there is still a good chance that someone will be able to trigger a large avalanche. The most dangerous terrain will be steep, wind loaded slopes at elevations above 2500'. Luckily, on days like this the most stable snow will also be where the best surface conditions are. Look for this on slopes that have remained sheltered from the recent strong winds, and consider staying off the steep terrain in the alpine while the snowpack has a little more time to adjust.

    The strong easterly winds we've been seeing are expected to die down today, but the fresh wind slabs they have formed should still be reactive through the day. The most sensitive avalanches will likely be a foot or two deep, which will be plenty big enough to bury a person. They may also trigger a larger avalanche failing deeper in the snowpack (more on this in Problem 2 below). Take warning signs like shooting cracks or collapsing as a clear sign of unstable snow, but be aware that you may not always see these even when conditions are dangerous. The simple combination of stiff snow on top of softer snow may be the only sign you get today.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    The major storm events over the weekend have added a significant stress to the snowpack. It is unclear how active the weak interface that started getting buried 8 days ago will be at this point. At only two days out from that loading event, it is still too soon to be stepping out into steep terrain, especially in the alpine where the layer is the most suspect. This also overlaps with the elevation band where the most recent round of wind slabs (mentioned in Problem 1) will be most reactive. This weak layer will be difficult to assess, so the best way to manage it is to avoid steep upper elevation terrain for now.

    Although the snowpack is not nearly as touchy today as it was during the peak of the storm, there is still a good chance that a person could trigger a large avalanche.  In the long term this heavy load will be a great way for the snowpack to gain strength, but we need to give it some more time to adjust before we can be confident that a person won't trigger a very large avalanche.

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