Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions will develop as new snow accumulates on warming temperatures. Expect the most dangerous conditions in wind-loaded terrain, but still be suspicious of any steep open slopes over 30 degrees. Sunday will be a good day to dial it back and stick to lower-angled, sheltered terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Heavy snowfall accompanied by warming temperatures may create reactive storm slabs that may be primed for human-triggering on Sunday. Expect these slabs to be larger and more consequential in wind loaded terrain, but still consider any open slopes greater than 30 degrees as suspect. Any triggered storm slab may have the potential to break widely where new snow accumulates over recently buried weak surfaces - like surface hoar or other faceted grains. 

    Look for instability using test slopes, hand shears, and other simple tests. Snowpack collapsing or cracks shooting out from your feet or machine are obvious signs of instability that you should not ignore. Sunday will be a good day to stick to well-supported, lower-angle terrain. 

    (1/1/2025)

    Riders triggered small avalanches, 1.5 feet deep, on a steep convex slope. Moonlight area. ESE, 5,300ft

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Increasing snow levels and rain-on-snow at lower elevations may set the stage for a round of wet loose avalanches involving the recent snow accumulation. While most should start small, don’t underestimate wet snow in larger terrain features, where the potential size could grow large enough to be a problem. Don’t linger on or directly under steep slopes where you observe rollers, small wet avalanches, or find wet, unconsolidated snow.

    (12/28/2024)

    Steep road banks are a great to observe wet snow instabilities, like these rollerballs and mini wet loose avalanches. 

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

Stevens should get a good punch of precipitation, wind, and warming temperatures from Saturday night's storm. With that, be ready for reactive storm snow and dangerous avalanche conditions. Expect the new storm snow to be especially reactive in areas where surface hoar or near-surface facets may have existed prior to the recent accumulation. 

On Thursday, an NWAC Forecaster in the Skyline Lake area found the storm snow from the past week is bonding well. As mentioned above, the surface snow was weakening with small facets and, in some places, surface hoar. Riders in the Moonlight area triggered small avalanches in older wind slabs on a very steep, unsupported convex slope.  On Tuesday, a forecaster went to upper elevations in Lanham Creek and Jim Hill. They found little signs of instability as they traveled and snow stability tests produced stubborn or no results on the weak storm interfaces from earlier this week. There was 7-8 feet of snow at 5500ft. The top 8-10 inches of recent snow is weakening with the cold temperatures, and surface hoar and rime were found on the snow surface. Older wind slabs could be identified under the low-density snow but did not produce any cracking or signs of instability. There were challenging travel conditions below 4200ft, especially under the forest canopy, with just a few inches of snow over firm icy snow. 

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