Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Very large and destructive avalanches may release naturally from the upper mountain as the storm drags into Wednesday.  This is not the day to linger in the canyons even at lower and mid-elevations.  Steer clear of steep slopes at any elevation with obvious signs of wind-loading.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    This is one of those scenarios when the combination of sustained high winds, heavy snowfall, and a complete lack of observations from the upper mountain outside of weather station data makes us nervous about very large and destructive avalanches releasing from the alpine and running several thousand feet downslope.  Let the storm run its course and stay out of the canyon runouts at lower and mid-elevations. 

    You'll find wind-affected snow at all elevations.  In more open terrain, expect to find firmer, harder wind slabs that have formed further downslope than usual as well as erratic loading patterns, both adding another layer of difficulty to safe travel.  At lower and mid-elevations, keep it simple and stick to lower angle and sheltered terrain. 

    (1/6/2024)

    Hard slab debris from a human triggered avalanche on Pea Gravel Ridge. 

    Photo: Jack Kuenzle

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    High snowfall rates, particularly Tuesday night, will increase the likelihood of slab avalanches failing within the new storm snow on steep open slopes even in more sheltered terrain.    You may see evidence of an overnight natural storm slab cycle as you travel. 

    While shallower storm slabs will be in the forefront, you'll need to wrestle with lingering uncertainty surrounding deeper weaker layers buried last week.  As recently as last weekend, remotely triggered avalanches and rumbling whumpfs occurred on NW-N-E aspects above 5500'. The suspect layers are now several feet down from the surface and harder for a human to trigger.  Given the potential consequences of a deeper step-down slide, you should tread cautiously near any open slope steeper than 35 degrees.  

    This storm slab was remotely triggered over the weekend. (1/7/2024) Photo: Kyle Wyatt

Avalanche Discussion

We're up to over 5" inches of water and almost 4 feet of snow since January 6th!  Wow, winter arrived in a hurry. It's important to note, that the snow-line took a detour up to 6000-6500' on Monday, so we likely have a new crust forming a few feet down in this newer portion of the snowpack.  Observers were quite limited in their access on Tuesday due to the storm's intensity.  As of mid-day at 5000' near the summit of Ski Bowl, the snow depth was almost 3' with 5" of new snow on top of a refreezing crust.  

Travelers last weekend remotely triggered avalanches up to size D2.5 and other groups reported whumpfs. Two prominent potential weak layers exist in the upper snowpack that are suspected in these events. The 1/4 and 12/30 crusts both have potential weak snow above them. If avalanches fail on these layers, they could wrap terrain features. 

Regions covered