Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Check to see how conditions are behaving as you gain elevation and as the day progresses. As new snow slowly adds up, you might find potential to trigger soft, shallow storm slabs or sluffs on a crust. Larger and steeper terrain features at higher elevations may warrant a step back as avalanche danger increases. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    As new snow slowly adds up it may start to become reactive on Thursday. First you might notice some minor cracking, and at some point during the day you might be able to trigger shallow slabs. These will likely run on or just above the most recent crust, so could be 6-10" deep. Winds are expected to be on the lighter side, but right near higher ridgelines you could find slightly more cohesive snow from wind transport. Look for small shooting cracks, and you can use things like skin track tests or hand shears to check and see how new snow is behaving. As stated above, it'll most likely be a day to take a step back and consider steering around the larger, steeper features where even small slides could cause increased consequences. 

    Steeper slopes may become prone to loose dry avalanching, or sluffs. These may actually be the more common theme that you'll find, and shouldn't pose too much threat unless you get caught or hit by one in the wrong place. Look for other signs that snow may be prone to sluffing and heed them during the day.

    (12/1/2023)

    A rider triggers cracks just before an avalanche released in the new snow. The avalanche was 10" deep and ran 60-70ft down-slope, D1 . NE, 5,600ft, Cowboy Mtn (uncontrolled terrain)

    Photo: Pat Riffie

Avalanche Discussion

Another 4-8" of snow may fall overnight and through the afternoon on Thursday with a slight warmup in temperatures. Expect a snowy day!

On Wednesday, we traveled to the north side of Lichtenberg and found about 5" of snow on a thin crust from 12/30. This snow had fallen in a couple different events, and a thin layer of small facets and small surface hoar was found about an inch above the crust on shaded slopes at mid and upper elevations. We only found very minor cracking on a south aspect at 5,800ft, where the new snow wasn't bonding well to the slick crust. A small loose dry avalanche was initiated on a steeper north facing pitch right off the ridgeline at 5,800ft. Tilt tests also showed that the newer snow was not bonded very well to the upper crust.

Slightly deeper in the pack, compression tests and extended column tests produced sudden and propagating results 16" down on a layer of larger surface hoar and facets on a slick, translucent crust from mid-December. This reinforces what observers have been reporting over the past couple of weeks: Most slopes hold a number of sub-surface crusts in the top 16". Weak, faceted snow and surface hoar have been found in between or above these crusts. This structure is somewhat widespread around the region, though hasn't been problematic for avalanches, yet. As we continue to receive sudden and propagating results on it, the chances of seeing these layers act up increases as more snow piles up. Either or both of these crust/facet/surface hoar layers could lead to a persistent slab problem in the not too distant future. 

Check out the observations from Nimbus Mountain on Sunday, and Skyline on Monday. Travel conditions and coverage are still thin, but improving by the day. Continue to beware of hitting exposed rocks, stumps, and creek openings, especially at lower elevations. You can contribute to the forecast! Let us know what you found by submitting an observation HERE. 

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