Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The storm snow is beginning to settle out, but you could still trigger avalanches on specific terrain features. Be especially wary of terrain near ridgelines with deep drifts, slopes that steepen abruptly at the base, or very steep pitches. Step into new terrain cautiously with frequent assessments before committing to more consequential slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A brief break in the frequent storm systems should decrease the likelihood of triggering an avalanche. As the storm snow settles, stay vigilant on certain terrain features where you could trigger a storm or wind slab. Extreme or complex terrain, convex features, or unsupported slopes are all places to treat with suspicion on Tuesday. Lingering wind slabs along ridgelines, confined alpine features, or the base of cliffs may still be reactive and could produce much larger avalanches. Identify wind-affected snow using cornice formations, hollow-sounding drifts, or textured surfaces. As you travel, frequently use test slopes and quick snowpack tests in both sheltered and wind-affected terrain to observe how the snow reacts before considering stepping out into more consequential slopes. 

    The storm snow is settling, and the snowpack is becoming stronger. However, there are weaker layers that may take more time to heal. While cooler temperatures should help, the snowpack has a few concerning interfaces buried 2-3 feet deep. So, while less likely, there is a chance you could trigger a much deeper avalanche on one of these layers from earlier in the week. 

    (12/30/2024)

    Small slabs in very steep terrain. These likely failed overnight on December 29-30. 

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

Last night's Puget Sound Convergence missed the Stevens Pass zone, landing just a touch too far south. The zone picked up 10" of snow in the last 24 hours, but only about half of that fell overnight. A brief reprieve from the constant storms is in store for Tuesday, so enjoy a day with a little less moisture management. The break will be short-lived, though, as another storm is scheduled for arrival by Tuesday night. With some clearing, sunshine, and colder temperatures overnight on  Monday, surfaces could weaken or develop a surface hoar layer. So look closely at Monday's snow surface, as it might be Tuesday's weak layer. 

The frequent storms have limited observations from upper elevations. So, if you're venturing out during the break in weather, proceed cautiously and be prepared to dial back your terrain choices if you identify red flag signs of instability. Cracking, collapsing, or recent avalanches are all reasons to back off steep terrain objectives. 

I got out in the Stevens Pass area on Monday, and while the snowpack is strengthening, I still identified weaker interfaces where stability tests would fail with stubborn results. I expect these to continue to improve, but it's worth keeping a mindset of stepping out slowly. At 5000ft, I found just over 8 feet of snow, with about 4 feet over the Solstice Crust. As with previous observations, I found a favorable bond with this crust. This elevation saw no rain throughout the fluctuating temperatures of the Holiday week. The overall snowpack is right side up, but I did find a notably weaker interface buried 1.5 feet deep that produced non-propagating test results in an extended column test (ECTN 13), but slid easily off the column. This might be the type of interface that would fail in much steeper or unsupported slopes. Below 4200ft, 5-8 inches of snow rests over a breakable melt-freeze crust with wet snow below, making for unpleasant travel at these lower elevations. Cooler temperatures on Monday night could help make this a more supportable surface for travel. 

If you're in the mountains, let us know what you see by submitting an observation.

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