Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Heavy, warm snow and strong wind will bring very dangerous conditions. Avoid avalanche terrain, and stay far away from overhead slopes where very large avalanches could come down from above. Strong winds will keep the danger elevated at upper elevations, and you could encounter wet avalanches at low elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Rain will fall below 5,000ft. Any natural wet avalanche activity should be tapering during the morning. You still may be able to trigger wet avalanches on steep slopes. With all the recent snowfall in the valleys and eastern mountains, wet avalanches could be a concern there. Watch for rollerballs, moist snow, and recent avalanches as a sign of the danger.

    (2/2/2024)

    An example from last season of wet avalanches in the Cutthroat paths on Highway 20. 

    Photo: Will Govus

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    If you venture into the mountains, be certain of your ability to avoid avalanche terrain. Expect that natural avalanches will occur during the day, and some could be very large. Stay well away from large slopes over 30 degrees, and don't linger in the runout of avalanche paths. The most dangerous terrain will be above 5,000ft, especially where the wind drifts deep slabs of snow on leeward slopes. 

    Wednesday's avalanches could take a variety of forms and sizes which will depend on the subtleties of the storm. In wind-sheltered terrain, storm slab avalanches could be big enough to bury or kill you. Strong winds will drift deeper slabs below cliffs and on leeward sides of ridges and wind-exposed features. In these areas, avalanches could be large to very large. On shaded west through north through east aspects, there's a chance for very large avalanches to break widely and run on weak snow adjacent to a recent crust. 

    (2/2/2024)

    An example of deep crown of an avalanche (D2.5) that occurred last season during a similarly warm storm. Blue Lake Peak, 7,600ft, N.

    Photo: Chris Bartram

Avalanche Discussion

A major storm is impacting the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. There's a great deal of uncertainty in weather models especially in forecasting where rain will fall and how much. At the time of publishing, it looks as though Washington Pass and east will receive all or mostly snow above 5,000ft. We expect snow totals in the range of 2-3 feet at Washington Pass. Strong winds will be a significant component in maintaining High avalanche danger through Wednesday. 

On Tuesday, observers went to Rainy Pass and found minimal wind slab conditions at middle elevations. They noted some weak snow above the 12/7 crust. On Monday, observers near the Hairpin Valley and WA Pass found more reactive wind slab conditions, reporting cracking and triggered avalanches. On Sunday, an NWAC forecaster went to upper elevations of Blue Lake Peak. On shaded slopes, the 12/7 crust was buried 10-16 inches deep and had weak, faceted snow on either side of it. Near Rainy Pass, the 12/7 crust is much more robust, while it's thin and brittle on shaded slopes near and east of Washington Pass. 

Take care as you travel - many early-season obstacles, such as trees, rocks, logs, and creeks, are exposed or sometimes barely hidden in areas and elevations with low snow.

You can contribute to the avalanche forecast. Please let us know what you see in the mountains by submitting an observation. 

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