Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Saturday will be a transition day from wet to dry snow avalanche problems as a cooler storm impacts the Olympics.  Use caution where you find freshly drifted snow on steep slopes below ridgelines.  Continue to limit your exposure in terrain where blocks of wet snow rest on unsupported, steep and rocky features.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Snow levels will fall rapidly during the morning hours and winds will be strong, easily moving new snow onto lee slopes.   The new snow will likely bond well to the refreezing old snow surface initially, but new wind slabs will become deeper and perhaps more sensitive as the day wears on.   Pay attention to changing conditions and continually evaluate the bond of the new snow to the old snow.    You can steer around fat pillowly drifts on steep lee slopes or choose more sheltered and lower angle terrain to avoid triggering a wind slab avalanche.  If you observe shooting cracks through firmer wind-pressed snow, you know instability is on the rise for similar slopes. 

    The recent warm weather has done a number on the snowpack, exposing plenty of obstacles.  Factor in the consquences of taking a ride given the rough early season snowpack; becoming caught in even a small avalanche and strewn through rocks, trees, etc increases the chances for injury.  

    (12/12/2024)

     In this photo, shooting cracks and small slabs in wind-drifted snow are signs that wind slabs may have formed on nearby lee slopes.  

    Photo: Andy Harrington

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Following several days of above freezing temperatures and occasional rain, the risk of glide avalanches extends into Saturday.  Although we'll see falling temperatures and the return of snow to mid and upper elevations on Saturday, glide avalanches can lag well behind the return to winter conditions. 

    Continue to avoid or limit your time below poorly supported terrain features with overhanging blocks of snow.  If you find evidence of recent natural glide avalanches or multiple cracks in the snowpack (the brown frown), you're in an area where you'll want to put plenty of space between you and the slopes above.  

    On the other side of the wet snow spectrum, the chances of triggering a wet loose avalanche will quickly decrease with falling temperatures and new snowfall on Saturday.  At the beginning of the day, if you find yourself in wet snow sinking in deeper than your ankle, avoid steep terrain near terrain traps where even a small avalanche would cause harm. 

    (12/18/2024)

    Glide cracks and poorly supported wet snow on steep, rocky features.  These are the types of slopes you want to stay out from underneath.

    Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

The landscape has changed in the Olympics over the last week.  The good news is that shaded aspects haven't lost much snow above 4500 ft. These areas still have around 4 ft of snow in the Hurricane Ridge area.  On Thursday, NPS rangers found the upper snowpack wet and without any layers of concern.  Below 4500 ft, the snowpack is nearly non-existent in the trees, open meadows have less than a foot of snow and are melting out in places. The lack of snowpack limits avalanche concerns significantly at these elevations. South-facing slopes have even more areas melted out to the ground.

NPS Rangers witnessed the impacts of a widespread wet avalanche cycle from earlier in the week. Most of these avalanches were small, initiating from rollerballs or snow falling off trees, rocks, or cliffs. Larger avalanche activity may become apparent with more visibility. The upper snowpack has consolidated and mostly healed following since Tuesday's dry to wet snow transition that resulted from around 2" of liquid water at Hurricane Ridge. 

While the return to winter conditions at mid and upper elevations will be a welcome sight on Saturday, come prepared for challenging travel due to early season conditions.  Allow extra time for your route and be prepared for variable snow surfaces, exposed or barely covered obstacles, holes, and creek openings. 

 

Regions covered