Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You’re most likely to trigger a large, thick avalanche on steep slopes facing the northern two-thirds of the compass, where the wind frequently blows or the snowpack depth is variable. In the southern part of the zone, where the snowpack is thinner, your odds of finding trouble are greater.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    Slabs that formed in early February rest above a variety of ugly, widespread, weak layers (facets, surface hoar, crusts, and combinations). Before triggering an avalanche, you're unlikely to experience obvious signs of instability like snowpack cracking and collapsing or whumpfing. Persistent Slabs can release in surprising ways and break much wider than expected. You are most likely to trigger a dense, 2-4 foot thick avalanche where:

    • The snowpack is less than about 4 feet thick—relatively shallower spots may exist where the wind frequently blows, and the slab is not uniformly thick.
    • Any part of the slope you are on or connected to is steeper than about 35 degrees
    • The slope faces the northern 2/3 of the compass
    • A smaller wind slab or loose snow avalanche overloads the buried weak layers

    (2/17/2025) Avalanche on Sun Mountain in a thin snowpack near Ketchum.  Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Triggering a large, persistent slab avalanche is unlikely, and it would take a bit of bad luck to get into trouble. You’re most likely to encounter this problem in areas where the wind frequently blows and the snowpack depth is variable (less than about 4 feet). In the southern part of the zone, around the Smiley Creek drainages, the snowpack is likely thinner, which increases your odds of triggering a large avalanche. Further into the central and northern Sawtooths, your chances of triggering an avalanche are lower, but not zero—don’t assume all slopes have a uniformly deep snowpack. Professionals working in the area have started stepping into bigger terrain but are still avoiding obvious start zones where snowpack depth may vary and harbor shallow spots. 

You may find lingering small wind slabs or dry surface snow capable of producing sluffs in isolated, very steep terrain approaching 40 degrees in steepness. While they shouldn't be large enough to bury a person, they could knock you off your feet and take you for a ride. 

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