Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

The stormy and unsettled weather pattern that has been impacting the area is expected to persist as a parade of cyclones from the Pacific Ocean continue to aim at the West Coast. Heavy precipitation edging into northern California will likely dump a few inches of rain and heavy snow in the mountains. Periods of extreme wind and blizzard conditions above treeline are certain for the next several days. Avalanche danger is of most concern near and above treeline on Mount Shasta, above the rain/snow line, where things have been much more wintry the past several days. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–3

    Gale force southeast wind and ample amounts of fresh snow is expected today. Large, thick wind slabs will continue to build near and above treeline on many aspects. Over the past three days, the wind has blow primarily out of the southeast and averaged 12 mi/hr with gusts to 61 mi/hr.  Wind slab avalanches could be very large and release naturally. This problem is most prevalent on Mount Shasta, above treeline. With difficult access and poor visibility, this problem will be easy to avoid for most users. The target audience is any snowmobilers riding up from town and sticking their nose into above treeline terrain. Avoid low angle run out zones and terrain traps below avalanche prone slopes, like the bottom of the west face of Gray Butte.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–3

    Yesterday's new snow amounts did not even come close to verifying, but we will give it a go again today. Twelve to eighteen inches of new snow is predicted for daylight hours and another twelve to twenty inches for tonight. Snow levels will linger near 4,500 feet. Existing thick, heavy, dense storm slabs rest on a crust/weak layer of snow. Two days ago, unstable pit test results were easily produced near treeline on Mount Shasta (8,000 feet). Storm slabs could fail within new snow or add enough weight to activate the weak layer now buried ~2.5 feet deep. 

Avalanche Discussion

We've kept the danger at high for two reasons:

  • Any avalanche near and/or above treeline on Mount Shasta will likely be large, destructive, run out into lower angle terrain and could easily kill you. This is our primary concern. 
  • If new snow totals and wind forecasted, match up to reality 

TONIGHT:  KBYG Avalanche Awareness Presentation, Saturday, January 7th at 7:00pm at Deadwood Supply Co in Mt. Shasta City. On Sunday, January 8th, Avalanche Rescue Clinic, 9am, location TBA based on weather conditions and local trailhead access.

ROAD STATUS: 

  • The Everitt Memorial Highway is still closed due to heavy, wet snow that the county equipment is unable to push, and both of their rotary blowers are down with mechanical illness. They will resume clearing when the equipment is repaired. Unknown day/time.
  • Castle Lake road gate has been closed this morning.

Regions covered