Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering small to large wind slab avalanches is possible near and above treeline. These avalanches may then trigger deep persistent slab avalanches that are very large and unsurvivable.

Avoid wind loaded, rounded, pillowed or corniced slopes steeper than 30° near and above treeline. Any loaded aspect is highly suspect. For the safest backcountry options, look for slopes below treeline that are less than 30°, and that are not connected to steeper starting zones above. 

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3.5

    Storm and wind slabs are likely to have grown to 2-3 meters thick. These slabs overlay early season snow that has metamorphosed into depth hoar. Some slopes may have already released during our MLK storm week, while others may be on the verge of releasing.  Near and above treeline, avoid all wind loaded slopes, pillowed slopes and cornices, as well as terrain connected to slopes with these features above. Steep convex rollovers should be avoided.

    We had large and very large persistent slab avalanches release during our New Year’s Storm cycle. Slabs that have not yet avalanched are now six feet (2 meters) thick or more. 

    "Deep Persistent Slabs are very difficult to predict and manage. They are low-probability high-consequence events. If you are caught in one, you are unlikely to survive. Often the only evidence of the problem arrives too late as a large, deadly, and unexpected avalanche. The only real effective risk management strategy is to avoid areas where you suspect a Deep Persistent Slab. They are most commonly triggered from shallow spots in the snowpack [usually located at the margins of the slab or slope]. Avoiding these areas is one way to reduce risk. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty, potentially for the remainder of the season." - CAIC

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Strong southwest winds have created wind slabs on leeward slopes and crossloaded other slopes. On Tuesday, wind slabs and storm slabs on southerly slopes were unreactive, and harder to trigger compared to the previous day. Other aspects near/above treeline have yet to be observed. Winds are forecast to continue for the next several days and will continue to redistribute the snow. Northerly winds are forecast for today and tonight. 

    (1/16/2023)

    Small wind slab release with small step down on SE aspect near treeline.  

Avalanche Discussion

We are just beginning to transition into a period of reduced avalanche danger. However this is a period of higher uncertainty. Weather has just started to clear, and we don't know the extent of any natural avalanche activity in many zones, nor do we know the sensitivity of remote and more northerly slopes. 

Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday look to be sunny days. Preceding a large storm cycle, these beautiful, winter-wonderland bluebird days will lure many people towards avalanche terrain. Conservative choices will be warranted. General Info: KPAC's current schedule for a full danger-rating forecast will be weekend days and holidays. Danger ratings will be issued with weekday storms, pending staffing availability. During non-storm weekdays, expect a general summary with no rating. 

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For more information on the Avalanche Danger Scale, watch this video!

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