Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

People would likely trigger large avalanches today in places where wind-blown snow has piled up. Unstable snow may also exist on steep slopes in sheltered areas. Watch out for signs of unstable snow like recent avalanches, blowing snow, and cracking snow, and move to gentler terrain if there is any doubt about the snow's stability. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    While the best window for natural avalanches occurred yesterday, the wind slabs built by the strong winds and new snow remain unstable. Moderate amounts of fresh snow and wind today will also help them grow. If a person ventures too close to a wind-loaded slope today, they would likely trigger a wind slab avalanche that could be several feet deep. NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects in near and above treeline terrain will hold the largest and most fragile wind slabs, but some of them may also exist below treeline due to the strength of the winds. Large, delicate cornices have formed above many wind-loaded slopes.

    Blowing snow, cornices above a slope, drifted snow, and wind-created surface textures all indicate the presence of wind slabs. Route plans that give wind slabs a wide berth can help avoid getting caught in a wind slab avalanche. This planning will also steer your group into more sheltered terrain where less wind-affected snow will likely exist. 

    (1/9/2023)

    Skier triggered D1 R5 wind slab avalanche - Near treeline - NE facing.

    Photo: Brandon Schwartz

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Weaknesses may still linger within the storm snow or at the boundary between storm snow layers. Triggering a storm slab avalanche while traveling on a steep slope remains possible today. New storm slabs may also form this afternoon as warmer heavier snow or rain falls. Where rain falls on the snow, areas of unstable wet snow will form, and sluffs of wet loose snow may occur. Storm slabs could involve enough snow to bury or injure a person today. 

    Watch for signs of storm slab instability, like recent avalanches or shooting cracks. Reaching into the snow to feel for heavy layers on top of lighter layers or layers of storm snow that easily separate from the snow below them can also help identify where unstable storm slabs may linger. If any signs of instability or uncertainty about a slope exist, bypass that area and switch to a less steep slope.

    (1/10/2023)

    Small intentionally triggered storm slab avalanche into gully feature in below treeline terrain on Andesite Ridge.

    Photo: Steve Reynaud

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    A thin layer of weak snow may exist near a rain crust buried on Jan 4. Snowpit tests on NW-N-NE aspects between 7,500 ft and 8,500 ft in the Border Ruffian and Blue Lakes areas south of Carson Pass have produced unstable results on this layer. One large avalanche may have occurred on it on 1/8 in that area. A storm day observation from Luther Pass may have found similar instability, but the storminess prevented any certainty. Observations at various elevations in the Independence Lake, Donner Summit, Pole Creek, Mount Rose, and West Shore Tahoe zones have not found evidence of faceting or weakness on this layer. Substantial unknowns remain regarding the areas where this layer is weak and problematic.

    The recent snow could overload this weak layer. An avalanche that fails on this crust/facet layer would fail several feet deep in the snowpack, likely have wide propagation, and could be triggered from low on a slope or the side. If any questions exist about whether or not this layer is present or remains unstable in the area, recreating on slopes less steep than 30 ° that are not connected to steep slopes represents the best plan. 

    (1/8/2023)

    Natural avalanche in Polaris Bowl on The Nipple, south of Carson Pass, CA. This avalanche occurred during a period of intense wind loading. Unconfirmed, but based on the wide propagation and areas of jagged crown, this may have been a persistent slab avalanche failing on the Jan 4 crust/facet layer.

    Photo: Public

Avalanche Discussion

Recent Observations

  • In addition to previously reported wind slab avalanches on NE-E aspects in near and above treeline terrain, more storm slab avalanches were reported on steep slopes in near and below treeline terrain yesterday. They ranged in size, but some involved more than enough snow to bury or injure a person.
  • A very large avalanche (D2.5) that may have failed on the facets around the Jan 4 rain crust occurred naturally on 1/8 during intense wind loading in Polaris Bowl on The Nipple, south of Carson Pass.

Regions covered